Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 19, 2018


Yesterday, USDCAD climbed to 1.3056 before dropping to 1.3019. The pairing then climbed to 1.3087 and held a 1.3070 – 1.3088 range for the balance of the session as oil prices and equities markets were under pressure yet again. Overnight, a rebound in global equity markets and oil prices saw USDCAD ease lower to 1.3027 ahead of the Canadian retail sales and inflation reports. Both data sets were weaker than expected sending USDCAD quickly up to 1.3115/20 – a 6 week high. The move was short-lived as broad-based USD weakness saw the pairing fall back towards opening levels at 1.3080.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 17, 2018

U.S. stocks fell as the week's second big serving of corporate earnings did much less to reassure bulls than yesterday's almost uniformly strong reports. The S&P 500 Index slid back below 2,800, heading for a second loss in three days. Ten-year Treasury yields remained in a tight range around 3.15 percent ahead of Federal Reserve meeting minutes, while the dollar rose the most in a week before a report expected Wednesday by the U.S. that could label China a currency manipulator. Oil touched below $70 a barrel after OPEC's secretary general said the market will remain well-supplied. The uneven batch of earnings reports rekindled concern that corporate profit growth may have peaked, with investors awaiting the latest Federal Reserve minutes for clues on rate policy. At the same time, the Trump administration is pressing its trade war with China, Brexit negotiations remain testy and Italian debt worries loom.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 16, 2018

U.S. stocks jumped as earnings from major banks and health-care firms bolstered confidence in the economy. The dollar fell as geopolitical tensions appeared to ease. The S&P 500 rallied after the index couldn't make a clean break of the key 200-day moving average on Monday. A rebounding tech sector led gains. Strong third-quarter results from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley helped boost the benchmark, while Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group Inc. earnings bolstered the Dow Jones Industrial Average. European stocks rose the most in four months, led by shares in Italy after the government agreed on a budget. Currently, the TSX is up 0.26% while the DOW is up 0.93%. EURCAD is down 0.33% trading between 1.4992 and 1.5058. GBPCAD is up 0.11% trading between 1.7063 and 1.7157. JPYCAD is down 0.72% trading between 0.01152 and 0.01161. Gold is up 0.39% trading between $1,225 and $1,232USD/oz., silver is up 0.57% trading between $14.61 and $14.85USD/oz., while oil is down 0.12% trading between $71.04 and $72.03.

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VBCE Weekly Foreign Exchange Wrap Up and Forecast for Oct. 8 – Oct. 12, 2018

Steve Brown, Senior Corporate Trader | Stevebrown@vbce.ca


The CAD was the worst performing currency this week while the JPY was the strongest. The bulk of the CAD gains that came after last week's announced USMCA trade deal were wiped out during Wednesday's and Thursday's sessions. Risk aversion flows from heavy equity market losses combined with a significant drop in oil prices were the main factors for CAD weakness in the absence of any top tier economic data. Canadian oil prices (Western Canadian Select) traded near historical lows - $20/barrel with a record $50+ discount compared to U.S. WTI crude because of increased production in the Alberta oil sands and pipeline bottlenecks due to the Prince George pipeline explosion and refinery maintenance season in the United States. USDCAD broke above last week's highs at 1.2956 and extended up to 1.3010 on Monday and Tuesday before correcting to 1.2926 in early Wednesday trade. Equity markets came under heavy selling pressure during Wednesday's session with the DJIA down more than 1,000 pts at one point. USDCAD climbed to 1.3073 – a two week high before falling back to 1.3000 on Friday as global markets staged a brief rally. USDCAD pushed higher several times during the heightened market volatility but failed to break through the 1.3050 – 1.3070 resistance area and finished the week near 1.3020.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 15, 2018

U.S. stocks fell along with the dollar as political tensions added to a growing list of investor concerns. Gold rose and Treasuries edged higher. The S&P 500 Index deepened its decline following its biggest weekly retreat since March as President Donald Trump threatened Sunday to impose another round of tariffs on China. European and Asian shares dropped after a weekend of warnings on global economic fragility from finance chiefs meeting at an annual IMF gathering. Oil traded around $71 a barrel amid tensions between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. over the disappearance of a prominent journalist. The USD touched a two-week low against peers, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell after U.S. retail sales disappointed in September. Gold headed toward its fourth advance in five days.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 12, 2018


Yesterday, USDCAD initially dropped from 1.3065 down to 1.3023 on the back of weaker than expected U.S. inflation data that also saw equity markets recover losses in the early going. The recovery was brief and as the slide continued, USDCAD climbed towards a two week / October high at 1.3070. The move was also short-lived with a subsequent fall to 1.3013. A 2nd run higher stalled at 1.3055 followed by a decline to 1.3015 with the pair holding near 1.3030 for the balance of the session. Overnight, global equity markets and commodity prices staged a recovery and the CAD was the best performing currency heading into this morning. USDCAD dropped from 1.3042 down to 1.3000 accordingly but has since bounced towards opening levels near 1.3030.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 11, 2018

U.S. stocks looked to end the longest losing streak of Donald Trump's presidency as technology shares rebounded from the worst rout in seven years. The dollar fell and Treasuries rose. The S&P 500 remained near the lowest since July, while the Nasdaq 100 Index rallied after a rout of more than 4 percent. Major benchmarks swung as much as 70 basis points in early trading that saw volumes surge to 63 percent above the 30-day average. Retailers and software companies paced gains, while utilities slumped. Delta Air Lines led industrial shares higher after reporting profits. The Cboe Volatility Index fell from the highest level since April.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 10, 2018


A risk-off tone gripped financial markets, with U.S. stocks falling a fifth day as Treasury yields rose and the effects of the trade war with China starting to show up in corporate profits. Oil fell from $75 a barrel even as a major hurricane headed for the Florida Panhandle. The S&P 500 was mired in its longest slide since Donald Trump's election win on rising concern that higher yields will crimp corporate earnings after Fastenal Co. added to angst over thinning profit margins. Chipmakers sank, dragging the Nasdaq indexes to the lowest since July. Caution remains the key word across global markets as investors try to gauge whether the recent selloff has room to run. Valuations look more appealing, but the backdrop to trading is still dominated by deepening U.S.-China tensions and a surge in volatility for stock and bond markets. While the Treasury rout has eased, a glut of new U.S. debt is coming to the market this week. Following the American producer price data are consumer figures, which land on Thursday and may determine where yields go from here. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index dropped as declines for industries including miners and automakers outweighed gains in telecom companies and banks. Shares in Japan rose after four days of losses while those in China edged up, and South Korean equities slumped as trading resumed after a holiday.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 9, 2018

Stocks swung between gains and losses Tuesday as technology shares rebounded and Treasury yields steadied near a seven-year high amid rising trade tensions and a sketchy outlook for global growth. The Nasdaq indexes were higher in early trading, while the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries retreated to around 3.22 after almost hitting 3.26, the highest since 2011.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 5, 2018


Yesterday, USDCAD initially held a 1.2855 – 1.2890 range before climbing to 1.2939 during the North American session on broad-based USD strength. Equity markets and commodity prices tumbled across the board as U.S. 10 year yields soared to 3.20% - the highest since 2011. After hitting new 4 year highs near $77 the previous session, oil prices tumbled 4% to $73.86. Overnight, USDCAD eased lower to 1.2910 ahead of the Canadian and U.S. employment reports. Headline data looked very good for Canada and less so for the U.S. taking USDCAD down to 1.2888. Looking into the details, all of Canada's job gains were part-time jobs while wage inflation declined for the 3rd consecutive month. It was near 4% back in June and is now at 2.2% y/y. U.S. wage inflation also declined y/y but a +69k revision along with an unemployment rate near a 50 year low more than made up for the soft headline. USDCAD quickly climbed to a new weekly high of 1.2956 before falling back down to 1.2910. Subsequent rallies have stalled shy of the 1.2950 level with pullbacks to 1.2926. The GBP is the best performing currency today hitting 1 week highs against both the CAD and USD on favourable Brexit headlines.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 4, 2018

The sell-off in U.S. Treasuries eased, though 10-year rates pushed to levels last seen in 2011. The dollar fell versus the euro and yen, while American stocks retreated. The benchmark Treasury yield poked above 3.2 percent for the first time in seven years before pulling back. The rout that started Wednesday sent European government bonds lower, while the surge in yields weighed on other assets. The S&P 500 slipped along with the Stoxx Europe 600 and MSCI Asia Pacific gauges. Emerging-market shares were hit particularly hard. The greenback advanced a sixth day, though the Bloomberg dollar index gave back most of the advance. The Turkish lira led developing-nation currencies lower, closely followed by the ruble as Dutch authorities said they expelled four Russian agents after a hacking attempt.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 3, 2018

The S&P 500 Index headed for a record close as data on private payrolls and American service industries underscored the economy's robustness at the same time Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled no rush to raise rates with inflation in check. The 30-year yield popped to the highest since 2014, while the two-year rate surged to a pre-crisis high. European assets firmed on news the Italian government may rein in spending. U.S. investors have so far looked past European politics and emerging-market strains, along with a close call between a U.S. and a Chinese warship in the disputed South China Sea that added to tensions to instead focus on strong economic data. Powell welcomed wage growth but expressed confidence that low unemployment won't spur a takeoff in prices that forces more aggressive tightening.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 2, 2018

U.S. stocks erased losses, with major averages now trading little changed as investors assessed the latest geopolitical tensions from China to Italy. Crude held above $75 a barrel in New York. Most stocks in the S&P 500 advanced, with gains in industrial metals driving gains among materials producers. Intel Corp. rallied to lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher. Carmakers were in focus as monthly sales figures rolled in, with Tesla advancing after meeting production targets. Amazon.com slipped after saying it will raise its minimum wage. Emerging-market equities tumbled amid weak data, while European shares slid as concern mounted that Italy's budget could lead to a debt crisis. The region's common currency touched the lowest in six weeks.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver October 1, 2018

U.S. stocks rose toward records and the USD slipped with Treasuries after negotiators agreed to a new version of the Nafta trade pact. The CAD and MXN each jumped 0.7 percent versus the USD. A measure of confidence returned to markets after American and Canadian representatives announced a trade deal to be known as the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, making modest revisions to the old Nafta framework. Details of the USMCA are sparse but the outlines suggest it mirrors agreements reached between the US/Mexico in the auto sector on foreign content and wages, concedes some ground to the US on dairy and strengthens the US IP protections marginally. In other good news for Canada, Shell is poised to announce a CAD 40B LNG project, reportedly Canada's largest ever infrastructure deal. Political drama in Washington still swirled around Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee, but investors remained focus on a spate of corporate news and economic data due this week. Currently, the TSX is up 0.18% while the DOW is up 0.99%. EURCAD is down 1.07% trading between 1.4796 and 1.4932. GBPCAD is down 0.71% trading between 1.6662 and 1.6803. JPYCAD is down 1.02% trading between 0.01121 and 0.01130. Gold is down 0.27% trading between $1,184 and $1,192USD/oz., silver is down 0.82% trading between $14.37 and $14.68USD/oz., while oil is up 1.95% trading between $72.96 and $74.90.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver September 28, 2018


Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3010 up to 1.3083 before falling back to 1.3015. The pairing then climbed back to hold within a 1.3030 to 1.3050 range for the balance of the session. Bank of Canada governor Poloz was talking late yesterday and commented that the Bank of Canada will continue to raise interest rates gradually. He was also optimistic on NAFTA. The CAD was the best performing currency overnight with USDCAD falling to 1.2988 before bouncing back to 1.30 ahead of the Canadian July GDP report. Canadian GDP was better than expected taking USDCAD down to 1.2954. Corrective bounces have been limited to 1.2985 and a subsequent move lower has taking the rate down to 1.2911 – near 4 month lows. Today's move completely erases the post U.S. Fed rate hike move that took USDCAD from 1.2980 up to 1.3083. The EURO is under pressure today and trades near 5 week lows on budget concerns in Italy.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver September 27, 2018


U.S. stocks climbed and the dollar jumped to a two-week high as investors digested the likelihood of more Federal Reserve interest-rate increases stretching into next year. Gains in the largest tech companies helped lift the S&P 500 Index after four days of losses, and the Stoxx Europe 600 edged higher. Supportive economic data also fueled gains in the greenback. The euro fell with Italian bonds and equities as a deadline to agree on the country's deficit targets loomed. Ten-year Treasury yields crept higher; the pound slipped.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver September 27, 2018


U.S. stocks climbed and the dollar jumped to a two-week high as investors digested the likelihood of more Federal Reserve interest-rate increases stretching into next year. Gains in the largest tech companies helped lift the S&P 500 Index after four days of losses, and the Stoxx Europe 600 edged higher. Supportive economic data also fueled gains in the greenback. The euro fell with Italian bonds and equities as a deadline to agree on the country's deficit targets loomed. Ten-year Treasury yields crept higher; the pound slipped.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver September 26, 2018

The Federal Open Market Committee is almost certain to raise rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 2% to 2.25% when it announces its decision today at 11am. At the same time, the committee will publish the quarterly update to the famous "dot plot" which is likely to bolster expectations for another move in December. Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference at 11:30am to discuss the outlook, where he is likely to face questions about President Donald Trump's comments on monetary policy. Elsewhere, the GBP weakened as Theresa May doubled down on her Brexit stance, while European bonds climbed and Italian debt outperformed. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index drifted. Japan's Topix ended just below its highest point in almost 8 months, while stocks rallied in Hong Kong as traders returned from a holiday and Chinese shares rose after MSCI Inc said it's considering increasing the country's weight in its global indexes.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver September 25, 2018

U.S. stocks struggled for direction after two days of declines, as surging oil prices lifted energy producers while chipmakers dragged tech shares lower. Treasuries fell as the Federal Reserve started its two-day policy meeting. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lagged behind other gauges as Facebook Inc. fell after Instagram's founders said they were leaving the company, while energy stocks helped lift broader gauges. Benchmark Treasury yields touched 3.1 percent, and oil traded at a four-year high. Core European bonds slipped with Treasuries, but Italian notes rallied as the country crept closer to a budget proposal. The dollar drifted lower. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for its seventh gain in eight days, and Japanese equities rose to the highest since January. Some caution remained on display, with emerging markets underperforming.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver September 24, 2018


All three major U.S. equity indexes slipped, led by drops for auto companies and makers of consumer goods after China warned it won't meet with U.S. officials unless they stop threatening to expand tariffs. The escalation in cross-Pacific trade tensions are testing global equities, which have posted two strong weeks of gains in part due to optimism that economies can weather any potential disruption. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it's starting to factor into its strategy a growing potential for a "Phase III" of the tariff war next year affecting all Chinese imports, which would lead to weaker growth in the country and hit U.S. stocks. Elsewhere, the euro jumped and the region's sovereign bonds dropped after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi predicted a pickup in underlying inflation. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index ended a six-day winning streak. Coming up this week is the Federal Reserve's policy meeting that will likely see interest rates increased for the third time this year, with markets increasingly pricing for another one in December.

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