VBCE Weekly Foreign Exchange Wrap Up for Aug 26 – Aug 30, 2019

The USD was the best performing currency on the week with the CAD close behind. USDCAD initially climbed from 1.3290 up to recent resistance at 1.3320 before falling to 1.3224 in early Tuesday trade. The break below notable support at 1.3251 was short-lived and the pairing rallied back to 1.3300 the same day. USDCAD remained range-bound between 1.3270 and 1.3320 Wednesday and Thursday as U.S. Q2 GDP came in as expected. On Friday, Canadian GDP (Q2 and June) beat expectations sending USDCAD down to 1.3247. The move was short-lived with 3% drop in oil prices and broad-based USD strength into month-end sending USDCAD back up to a weekly high of 1.3333. The pairing finished the week at 1.3310 – a close above 1.3300 for the first time since June. The GBP broadly weakened after UK PM Johnson chose to prorogue UK Parliament until Oct. 14th. As the Brexit deadline is Oct 31, the move increases the odds of a "nodeal" Brexit. The JPY broadly weakened as concerns over the U.S. China trade war eased as global equity markets moved higher.

Weekly Open Low High Weekly Close USDCAD 1.3292 1.3224 1.3333 1.3310 EURCAD 1.4825 1.4593 1.4860 1.4621 GBPCAD 1.6308 1.6135 1.6350 1.6175 JPYCAD 0.01266 0.01246 0.01274 0.01251 AUDCAD 0.8966 0.8906 0.9015 0.8947 Key Events for the week: *USDCAD holds within a 1 cent range near 2 month highs *EURCAD and EURUSD hold near 2 year lows *GBPCAD and GBPUSD climbs towards 1 month high *JPYCAD holds near 3 year high / USDJPY rebounds from 15 month lows *AUDCAD holds near 9 year lows / AUDUSD holds near 10 year lows *Crude oil (WTI) climbs 7% towards 1m highs before falling 4%: range $53.23 - $57.07 *USD index rises towards 28 month high from 2 week low: range 97.60 – 99.02 *U.S. 10 year Treasury yields hold near 3 year lows: range 1.44% to 1.55% *U.S. durable goods orders: 2.1% (exp 1.1% / prev 1.9%) *Germany GDP y/y Q2: 0% (exp 0% / prev 0%) qoq: -0.1% (exp -0.1% / prev -0.1%) *EIA crude oil stocks change: -10.027 million (exp -2.112 m / prev -2.732 m) *Germany unemployment rate: 5% (exp 5% / prev 5%) *Germany CPI harmonized y/y: 1.0% (exp 1.2% / prev 1.1%) *U.S. GDP Q2 annualized: 2.0% (exp 2.0% / prev 2.1%) *U.S. GDP price index: 2.5% (exp 2.4% / prev 2.5%) Please contact the VBCE trading desk at 604-685-1016 for more information on our corporate foreign exchange and wire payment services. ** To unsubscribe to this Daily Update, please email stevebrown@vbce.ca. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This message is intended for the individual or organization to whom it is addressed and may contain confidential or sensitive information. If you receive this fax in error, please help us prevent further errors by informing the sender immediately by telephone. We also ask that you refrain from disseminating or using the information in or accompanying this message and that you destroy all copies when requested. www.vbce.ca">www.vbce.ca *Japan Tokyo CPI ex fresh food y/y: 0.7% (exp 0.7% / prev 0.9%) *Japan unemployment rate: 2.2% (exp 2.4% / prev 2.3%) *Japan retail trade y/y: -2.0% (exp -0.8% / prev 0.5%) *Germany retail sales m/m: -2.2% (exp -1.0% / prev 3.5%) *Eurozone unemployment rate: 7.5% (exp 7.5% / prev 7.5%) *Eurozone CPI core y/y: 0.9% (exp 1.0% / prev 0.9%) *Canada GDP (June): 0.2% (exp 0.1% / prev 0.2%) *Canada GDP annualized qoq Q2: 3.7% (exp 3.0% / prev 0.5%) On Tap for This week: Mon Sept. 2: China Caixin manufacturing PMI: exp 49.8 / exp 49.9 Germany Markit manufacturing PMI: exp 43.6 / prev 43.6 Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI: exp 47 / prev 47 UK Markit manufacturing PMI: exp 48.4 / prev 48 Tue Sept 3: Australia (RBA) interest rate decision: exp 1% / prev 1% European Central Bank (ECB) speech UK court hearing on forcing a no deal Brexit Canada Markit manufacturing PMI: prev 50.2 U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI: exp 51.0 / prev 51.2 Wed Sept 4: Australia GDP Q2 (qoq): exp 0.5% / prev 0.4% y/y: exp 1.4% / prev 1.8% China Caixin services PMI: prev 51.6 Eurozone retail sales y/y: exp 1.3% / prev 2.6% Canada international merchandise trade: exp -$0.30 billion / prev $0.14 billion U.S. trade balance: exp -$54.2 billion / prev -$55.2 billion Bank of Canada interest rate decision: exp 1.75% / prev 1.75% Thur Sept 5: Australia trade balance: exp $7,400 million / prev $8,036 million U.S. ADP employment change: exp 150,000 / prev 156,000 U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI: exp 54.1 / prev 53.7 EIA crude oil stocks change: prev – 10,027 million barrels Fri Sept 6: Germany industrial production: exp 0.3% / prev -1.5% Eurozone GDP Q2 y/y: exp 1.1% / prev 1.1% Canada net employment change: exp 12,500 / prev -24,200 Canada unemployment rate: prev 5.7% Canada average hourly wages y/y: prev 4.5% U.S. non-farm payrolls: exp 159,000 / prev 164,000 U.S. unemployment rate: exp 3.7% / prev 3.7% U.S. average hourly earnings y/y: exp 3.1% / prev 3.2% Please contact the VBCE trading desk at 604-685-1016 for more information on our corporate foreign exchange and wire payment services. ** To unsubscribe to this Daily Update, please email stevebrown@vbce.ca. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This message is intended for the individual or organization to whom it is addressed and may contain confidential or sensitive information. If you receive this fax in error, please help us prevent further errors by informing the sender immediately by telephone. We also ask that you refrain from disseminating or using the information in or accompanying this message and that you destroy all copies when requested. www.vbce.ca Technically, USDCAD is neutral / bullish. There were two moves below recent support at 1.3250 that failed to sustain any momentum. Moves towards recent resistance in the 1.3330 – 1.3346 area also failed to sustain and the pairing finished the week just above the psychological 1.3300 level. A sustained break above 1.3346 could see a top-side test of the June highs 1.3420 – 1.3520. A sustained break below 1.3250 would likely yield a test of 1.3180. Topside targets to consider: 1.3345, 1.3380, 1.3430, 1.3480, 1.3520 Downside targets to consider: 1.3250, 1.3225, 1.3180, 1.3110, 1.3040 Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada.S. Federal Reser

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The information and opinions contained herein are gathered from sources which are thought to be reliable but the reader should not assume that the information and opinions are official or final. VBCE makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of the information and opinions, and accepts no liability for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information and opinions provided. The content is for general information only and does not constitute in anyway giving financial advice.