​VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Sept. 23, 2016

USDCAD spot rate: 1.3140 - 1.3145 (as at 7:45am PST)

Ranges:

Asia:

1.3042

to

1.3076

Europe:

1.3033

to

1.3091

North America:

1.3030

to

1.3163

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2

S1

R1

R2

1.3000

1.3090

1.3150

1.3248

Key Economic Data Releases:

- Canada retail sales: -0.1% (exp. 0.1% / prev. -0.1%)

- Canada Core retail sales: -0.1% (exp. 0.5% / prev. -0.6%)

- Canada CPI m/m: -0.2% (exp. 0.1% / prev. -0.2%) y/y: 1.1% (exp. 1.4% / prev. 1.3%)

- Canada Core CPI m/m: 0% (exp. 0.2% / prev. 0%) y/y: 1.8% (exp. 2%/prev. 2.1%)

- U.S. manufacturing PMI: 51.4 (exp. 51.9 / prev. 52.0)

Key Event Calendar:

Date

Canada

U.S.A.

Sept. 26

Sept. 27

Sept. 28

Sept. 29

Sept. 30

GDP (July)

New home sales

Services PMI, consumer confidence

Durable goods orders, Crude oil inventories

GDP Q2, GDP price index, pending home sales

Personal income/spending, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment

Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.3097 down to 1.3000 before climbing back to 1.3076. The pairing would then ease back towards 1.3040 in late trade. Overnight, USDCAD climbed to 1.3091 before falling to 1.3030 on comments of a potential Saudi / Iran oil output freeze. Canadian retail sales and inflation data missed market estimates sending USDCAD up to 1.3128 within seconds of the 5:30am release. The pairing has edged higher over the past 2 hours testing 1.3163 with pull-backs limited to 1.3130 thus far. The 1.3130 – 1.3160 area is a key resistance zone as it effectively served as a support base over the past week when USDCAD was attempting to challenge the 1.3250 technical level. After Wednesday's U.S. Fed announcement, broad-based USD weakness saw USDCAD break below the 1.3130/60 support zone (now turned resistance). Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are both down 0.28%. EURCAD is up 1% trading between 1.4615 and 1.4771. GBPCAD is down 0.20% trading between 1.6892 and 1.7082. JPYCAD is up 0.65% trading between 0.01290 and 0.01303. Gold is down 0.16% trading between $1,334 and $1,340USD/oz., silver is down 1% trading between $19.73 and $19.94USD/oz., while oil is down 0.35% trading between $45.47 and $46.53.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive, CME Group

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The information and opinions contained herein are gathered from sources which are thought to be reliable but the reader should not assume that the information and opinions are official or final. VBCE makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of the information and opinions, and accepts no liability for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information and opinions provided. The content is for general information only and does not constitute in anyway giving financial advice.