VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Tuesday, September 30, 2016

USDCAD spot rate: 1.3102 - 1.3107 (as at 7:38am PST)

Ranges:

Asia:

1.3140

to

1.3166

Europe:

1.3140

to

1.3195

North America:

1.3086

to

1.3182

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2

S1

R1

R2

1.3000

1.3050

1.3185

1.3270

Key Economic Data Releases:

- Canada GDP (July): 0.5% (exp. 0.3% / prev. 0.6%)

- U.S. core personal consumption expenditure price index m/m: 0.2% (exp. 0.2% / prev. 0.1%)

- U.S. core PCE price index y/y: 1.7% (exp. 1.7% / prev. 1.6%)

- U.S. personal income: 0.2% (exp. 0.2% / prev. 0.4%)

- U.S. personal spending: 0% (exp. 0.1% / prev. 0.4%)

- U.S. Chicago purchasing managers index: 54.2 (exp. 52.0 / prev. 51.5)

- U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment index: 91.2 (exp. 90.0 / prev. 89.8)

Key Event Calendar:

Date

Canada

U.S.A.

Oct. 3

Oct. 4

Oct. 5

Oct. 6

Oct. 7

RBC mfg PMI

Trade balance

Building permits

Employment change, unemployment rate Ivey PMI, Bank of Canada business outlook survey

Markit mfg. / ISM mfg PMI

ADP employment change, trade balance, Non-mfg. PMI, crude oil inventories

Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg hourly earnings

Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.3115 down to 1.3048 before climbing back to 1.3184. The pairing would then ease back towards 1.3140 in late trade. The CAD gave back the bulk of its previous day's rally as risk aversion flows emanating from Deutsche Bank concerns overshadowed the risk-on market sentiment from the OPEC production freeze announcement. Overnight, USDCAD climbed to 1.3195 before falling back towards 1.3145 ahead of the 5:30am U.S. and Canadian data releases. USDCAD spiked quickly to 1.3182 before plunging to 1.3086 on strong Cdn July GDP data and mixed U.S. data. The pairing then bounced back towards 1.3125 before falling back towards 1.3100. The CAD is the best performing currency on the day as oil also gains for the 3rd consecutive day. The EUR whipsawed sharply today on rumours that the Deutsche Bank fine may only be $5.4 billion vs. $14 billion previously reported. Currently, the TSX is unchanged while the DJIA is up 0.70%. EURCAD is down 0.25% trading between 1.4631 and 1.4780. GBPCAD is down 0.25% trading between 1.6988 and 1.7096. JPYCAD is down 0.65% trading between 0.01292 and 0.01308. Gold is down 0.20% trading between $1,317 and $1,328USD/oz., silver is up 0.82% trading between $19.07 and $19.70USD/oz., while oil is up 0.17% trading between $47.07 and $48.22.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive, CME Group

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The information and opinions contained herein are gathered from sources which are thought to be reliable but the reader should not assume that the information and opinions are official or final. VBCE makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of the information and opinions, and accepts no liability for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information and opinions provided. The content is for general information only and does not constitute in anyway giving financial advice.