​VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Oct. 7, 2016

USDCAD spot rate: 1.3240 - 1.3306

Ranges:

Asia:

1.3216

to

1.3248

Europe:

1.3234

to

1.3297

North America:

1.3186

to

1.3297

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2

S1

R1

R2

1.3067

1.3186

1.3250

1.3300

Key Economic Data Releases:

- Canada net employment change: 67,200 (exp. 10,000 / prev. 26,200)

- Canada unemployment rate: 7.0% (exp. 7.0% / prev. 7.0%)

- Canada Ivey purchasing managers index: 58.4 (exp. 53.0 / prev. 52.3)

- U.S. non-farm payrolls: 156,000 (exp. 175,000 / prev. 167,000)

- U.S. unemployment rate: 5.0% (exp. 4.9% / prev. 4.9%)

- U.S. average hourly earnings: 0.2% (exp. 0.2% / prev. 0.1%)

Key Event Calendar:

Date

Canada

U.S.A.

Oct. 10

Oct. 11

Oct. 12

Oct. 13

Oct. 14

Thanksgiving Day

Housing starts

FOMC meeting minutes

Crude oil inventories

Retail sales, producer price index

Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3177 up to 1.3249 only to fall back to 1.3196. The pairing then bounced to hold near 1.3210 – 1.3220 for the balance of the day. USDCAD then jumped to 1.3248 in early Asian trade as the GBP mysteriously plunged 9.5 cents to three year lows within 3 minutes. The USD continued higher overnight taking USDCAD up towards a 7 month high of 1.3306, making marginal gains above last week's 1.3281 high. Canada's jobs data was exceptionally strong – the best month for job gains in 4 years. USDCAD dropped from 1.3297 down to 1.3186 on the news. U.S. data missed estimates but was deemed strong enough for the Fed to warrant a December interest rate hike. The Fed funds probability ticked higher from 55.1% to 59.5% while USDCAD corrected higher testing the 1.3250 level. Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down 0.10% and 0.16% respectively. EURCAD is up 0.50% trading between 1.4692 and 1.4832. GBPCAD is down 2% trading between 1.5730 and 1.6683. JPYCAD is up 1.3% trading between 0.01270 and 0.01284. Gold is up 0.44% trading between $1,250 and $1,265USD/oz., silver is up 0.78% trading between $17.20 and $17.65USD/oz., while oil is unchanged trading between $50.00 and $50.72.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive, CME Group

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The information and opinions contained herein are gathered from sources which are thought to be reliable but the reader should not assume that the information and opinions are official or final. VBCE makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of the information and opinions, and accepts no liability for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information and opinions provided. The content is for general information only and does not constitute in anyway giving financial advice.