VBCE FX Update May 30,2016

USDCAD spot rate: 1.3060 - 1.3065 (as at 8:35am PST)

Ranges:

Asia:

1.3018

to

1.3095

Europe:

1.3034

to

1.3095

North America:

1.3034

to

1.3078

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2

S1

R1

R2

1.2970

1.3034

1.3100

1.3188

Key Economic Data Releases:

- Canada current account Q1: -$16.77 billion (exp. -$16.8 billion)

- Canada industrial product price index m/m: -0.5% (exp. 0.2%) y/y: -1.6% (prev. -2.0%)

- Canada raw material price index m/m: 0.7% (exp. 2.2%) y/y: -12.5% (prev. -9.7%)

- U.S. Memorial Day / markets closed

Key Event Calendar:

Date

Canada

U.S.A.

May 31

June 1

June 2

June 3

GDP (March) / GDP Q1

RBC manufacturing PMI

Trade balance

Core PCE price index, consumer confidence

ADP employment change, ISM mfg. PMI

Crude oil inventories

Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg. hourly earnings, trade balance, ISM non-mfg

On Friday, USDCAD climbed from 1.2968 up to 1.3068 before falling back towards 1.30. There was a brief bounce to 1.3040 but the pairing would end the week near 1.3015. Overnight, commodity prices moved lower while the USD enjoyed widespread gains during the Asian session eclipsing Friday's high of 1.3068 and extending to 1.3095. With London and the U.S. on holiday, USDCAD eased back to 1.3034 to start the North American session. The pairing climbed back to 1.3078 but has since fallen to 1.3055. Besides the JPY, the CAD is the worst performing currency despite higher oil prices on supply disruptions from fighting in Libya. Tomorrow, Canada's GDP for March is expected to decline by 0.1% after a similar decline in February. Currently, the TSX is down 0.08% while the DJIA is closed. EURCAD is up 0.60% trading between 1.4451 and 1.4570. GBPCAD is up 0.30% trading between 1.9023 and 1.9144. JPYCAD is down 0.50% trading between 0.01172 and 0.01181. Gold is down 0.63% trading between $1,199 and $1,213USD/oz., silver is down 1.6% trading between $15.91 and $16.22USD/oz., while oil is up 0.24% trading between $49.10 and $49.70.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

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