​VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Monday, Oct. 31, 2016

USDCAD spot rate: 1.3410 - 1.3415 (as at 8:30am PST)










North America:




Technical Support / Resistance:









Key Economic Data Releases:

- U.S. PCE price: 0.1%% (exp. 0.1% / prev. 0.2%)

- U.S. personal income: 0.3% (exp. 0.4% / prev. 0.2%)

- U.S. personal spending: 0.5% (exp. 0.4% / prev. -0.1%)

Key Event Calendar:




Nov. 1

Nov. 2

Nov. 3

Nov. 4

GDP Aug, RBC mfg,. Poloz speech

Employment change, Ivey PMI unemployment rate, trade balance

ISM manufacturing PMI

ADP employment, oil inventories, Fed interest rate / FMOC statement

ISM non-mfg PMI, factory orders

Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, Avg hourly earnings, trade balance

It's month end and a busy week is in store for the markets. The outlook for relative central bank policy remains a core driver for CAD as market participants consider the BoC's tentative dovish, disoriented tone against an increasingly confident hawkish Fed. Markets are pricing in roughly 5bpts of BoC easing over the next 12 months and yield spreads are extended at the wider end of their mutli-month range. The US presidential election continues to draw attention as Hilary Clinton's once commanding lead in the polls is in jeopardy after the FBI announced on Friday that it would revive its probe into her email practices, citing a fresh trove of correspondence said to be relevant to the case. An ABC/Washington Post poll funds Trump has gained ground, with Clinton ahead just 1 point, compared with a 12-point gap a week earlier. With the FBI obtaining a warrant to search through the emails, the odds of a Clinton victory have fallen from 81% to 75%. Bank of England chief Mark Carney faces a torrent of speculation about his future after weekend reports that the he looks poised to leave his position in 2018, sticking to his original 5 year commitment. However, the Financial Times reports that Carney will serve a full term through 2021. He could put an end to speculation about his future as early as Thursday when the central bank holds a preconference to details its latest policy decision. Currently, the TSX is up 0.07% and the Dow is down 0.11%. EURCAD is down 0.05% trading between 1.4646 and 1.4758. GBPCAD is down 0.03% trading between 1.6270 and 1.6369. JPYCAD is down 0.08% trading between 0.01274 and 0.01287. Gold is down 0.17% trading between $1,271 and $1,279USD/oz., silver is up 0.17% trading between $17.74 and $17.91USD/oz., while oil is down 2.44% trading between $47.45 and $48.71.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive, CME Group


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