​VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, Nov. 4, 2016

USDCAD spot rate: 1.3415 - 1.3420 (as at 7:33am PST)

Ranges:

Asia:

1.3385

to

1.3411

Europe:

1.3398

to

1.3419

North America:

1.3388

to

1.3465

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2

S1

R1

R2

1.3314

1.3350

1.3465

1.3500

Key Economic Data Releases:

- Canada net employment change: 43,900 (exp. -10,000 / prev. 67,200)

- Canada unemployment rate: 7% (exp. 7% / prev. 7%)

- Canada Ivey PMI: 59.7 (prev. 58.4)

- Canada trade balance: -$4.08 billion (exp. -$1.70 billion / prev. -$1.99 billion)

- U.S. non-farm payrolls: 161,000 (exp. 175,000 / prev. 191,000)

- U.S. unemployment rate: 4.9% (exp. 4.9% / prev. 5.0%)

- U.S. average hourly earnings: 0.4% (exp. 0.3% / prev. 0.3%)

- U.S. trade balance: -$36.44 billion (exp. -$37.80 billion / prev. -$40.46 billion)

Key Event Calendar:

Date

Canada

U.S.A.

Nov. 7

Nov. 8

Nov. 9

Nov. 10

Nov. 11

Housing starts, building permits

New housing price index

Remembrance Day

Labour market conditions index

U.S. presidential election

EIA crude oil stocks change

Initial jobless claims

Veterans Day

Yesterday, USDCAD held within a narrow 1.3362 – 1.3423 range spending most of the North American session between 1.3380 and 1.3395 despite another sell-off in oil (down nearly 15% over the past 3 weeks). Overnight USDCAD climbed to 1.3430 ahead of the jobs data under pressure as oil prices dropped 2.5% from reported comments that Saudi Arabia threatened to hike oil output. U.S. headline data missed estimates while Canadian data looked surprisingly strong for the 2nd straight month. USDCAD dipped to 1.3388 before climbing to 1.3450. U.S. data was actually strong with higher wage pressure and a 35,000 positive revision to previous data. Canada lost 23,000 full time jobs – essentially all of the full-time jobs that were gained in September. After dipping to 1.3415, USDCAD tested the topside again reaching a new 8 month high of 1.3465. The pairing then dropped sharply to 1.3415 within minutes as oil prices jumped 2.5% after Saudi Arabia denied making the comments reported earlier. USDCAD has since ticked down to 1.3390. Currently, the TSX is down 0.33% while the DJIA is up 0.10%. EURCAD is up 0.15% trading between 1.4852 and 1.4961. GBPCAD is up 0.40% trading between 1.6693 and 1.6835. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.01297 and 0.01305. Gold is up 0.11% trading between $1,295 and $1,307USD/oz., silver is up 0.13% trading between $18.19 and $18.48USD/oz., while oil is up 0.10% trading between $43.60.13 and $44.84.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive, CME Group

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The information and opinions contained herein are gathered from sources which are thought to be reliable but the reader should not assume that the information and opinions are official or final. VBCE makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of the information and opinions, and accepts no liability for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information and opinions provided. The content is for general information only and does not constitute in anyway giving financial advice.