​VBCE Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, June 17, 2016


USDCAD spot rate: 1.2885 - 1.2890 (as at 8:10am PST)

Ranges:

Asia:

1.2914

to

1.2962

Europe:

1.2903

to

1.2928

North America:

1.2830

to

1.2916

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2

S1

R1

R2

1.2764

1.2830

1.2940

1.3086

Key Economic Data Releases:

- Canada consumer price index m/m: 0.4% (exp. 0.5%) y/y: 1.5% (exp. 1.6%)

- Bank of Canada CPI core m/m: 0.3% (exp. 0.3%) y/y: 2.1% (exp. 2.1%)

- U.S. housing starts: 1.164m (exp. 1.15m) % change: 0.7% (prev. 4.9%)

- U.S. building permits: 1.138m (exp. 1.15m) % change: -0.3% (prev. 4.9%)

Key Event Calendar:

Date

Canada

U.S.A.

June 20

June 21

June 22

June 23

June 24

Retail sales

housing price index, existing home sales, oil inventories

Manufacturing PMI, new home sales

Durable goods orders, consumer sentiment index

Yesterday, USDCAD initially climbed from 1.2896 up to 1.3086 before falling back towards 1.2930. The pairing would bounce to hold near 1.2960 for the balance of the session. Equity markets looked to be headed for the 4th consecutive day of declines but staged a turnaround to finish the day in positive territory. The quick turnaround caused a broad-based USD and JPY sell-off starting at about 8:30am and extending for the balance of the session. Overnight, positive market sentiment continued sending USDCAD down to 1.2903. The move extended to 1.2873 before a slight miss on the Canadian inflation data sent the pairing back up to 1.2903. With oil prices up over 3% on the day and North American markets opening in positive territory, another round of USD weakness took USDCAD down to 1.2830. The move was short-lived as market gains soon faded. With the DJIA dropping 100pts, risk aversion flows took over sending USDCAD back up to 1.2890. Also, noteworthy – the Atlanta Fed kept its U.S. 2nd quarter GDP estimate unchanged at 2.8% despite the recent slowdown in employment. Currently, the TSX is up 0.21% while the DJIA is down 0.46%. EURCAD is down 0.40% trading between 1.4463 and 1.4561. GBPCAD is down 0.20% trading between 1.8340 and 1.8495. JPYCAD is down 0.65% trading between 0.01231 and 0.01242. Gold is down 0.53% trading between $1,276 and $1,296USD/oz., silver is down 1.40% trading between $17.16 and $17.50USD/oz., while oil is up 3.3% trading between $45.87 and $47.71.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive

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The information and opinions contained herein are gathered from sources which are thought to be reliable but the reader should not assume that the information and opinions are official or final. VBCE makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of the information and opinions, and accepts no liability for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information and opinions provided. The content is for general information only and does not constitute in anyway giving financial advice.