VBCE Weekly Foreign Exchange Wrap Up for Nov. 13 – Nov. 17, 2017

Steve Brown, Senior Corporate Trader | Stevebrown@vbce.ca

In an environment of risk aversion to begin the week, USDCAD climbed from 1.2675 up to 1.2785 before falling back to 1.2711 as markets saw broad recoveries on Thursday. USDCAD climbed to 1.2825 briefly Friday AM after Canadian inflation data came in relatively low. The pairing eased back towards the 1.2740 level as oil prices surged 2%+ to close the week unchanged near 2.5 year highs. The EUR, GBP, and JPY made gains towards multi-month highs vs. the CAD while AUDCAD fell towards 1.5 year lows.

Themes for the week:

*The EUR & JPY lead while the CAD & AUD lag

*USDCAD near 5 month highs, EURCAD and GBPCAD near 6 month highs, JPYCAD near 3 month highs, AUDCAD near 1.5 year low

*WTI crude oil unchanged near 2.5 year highs ($54.95 - $56.80 range)

*Germany GDP Q3 y/y: 2.3% (exp 2.3% / prev 1.0%)

*U.K. CPI y/y: 3.0% (exp 3.1% / prev 3.0%)

*Japan GDP Q3 y/y: 1.4% (exp 1.3% / prev 2.6%)

*U.S. CPI y/y: 2.0% (exp 2.0% / prev 2.2%)

*U.S. retail sales: 0.2% (exp 0.1% / prev 1.9%)

*Australian employment: 3,700 (exp 17,500 / prev 26,600)

*U.K. retail sales: 0.3% (exp 0.1% / prev -0.7%)

*Eurozone CPI y/y: 1.4% (exp 1.4% / prev 1.4%)

*Canada manufacturing sales: 0.5% (exp -0.3% / prev 1.4%)

*U.S. industrial production: 0.9% (exp 0.5% / prev 0.4%)

*Canada CPI y/y: 1.4% (exp 1.4% / prev 1.6%)

On Tap for Next week:

Wed Nov. 22: U.S. core durable goods orders: exp 0.5% / prev 0.7%

U.S. FOMC meeting minutes

Thur Nov 23: Germany GDP Q3 y/y: exp. 2.3% / prev 2.3%

U.K. GDP Q3 y/y: exp 1.5% / prev 1.5%

Canada core retail sales: exp 1.0% / prev -0.7%