USDCAD spot rate: 1.3102 - 1.3107 (as at 8:03am PST)
Ranges: | Asia: | 1.3075 | to | 1.3100 |
Europe: | 1.3048 | to | 1.3083 | |
North America: | 1.3050 | to | 1.3111 |
Technical Support / Resistance:
S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
1.3015 | 1.3050 | 1.3118 | 1.3170 |
Key Economic Data Releases:
- Canada net employment change: 11,200 (exp 10,000 / prev 63,300)
- Canada full time employment: 33,900 (exp 20,000 / prev -16,900)
- Canada unemployment rate: 5.8% (exp 5.9% / prev 5.9%)
- Canada hourly earnings permanent employees y/y: 1.9% (exp 2.3% / prev 2.2%)
- Canada international merchandise trade: -$0.42 billion (exp $0.15 billion / prev -$0.55 billion)
- U.S. non-farm payrolls: 250,000 (exp 190,000 / prev 118,000)
- U.S. unemployment rate: 3.7% (exp 3.7% / prev 3.7%)
- U.S. avg hourly earnings m/m: 0.2% (exp 0.2% / prev 0.3%) y/y: 3.1% (exp 3.1% / prev 2.8%)
- U.S. trade balance: -$54.0 billion (exp -$53.6 billion / prev -$53.3 billion )
Event Calendar:
Date | Canada | U.S.A. |
Nov 5 Nov 6 Nov 7 Nov 8 Nov 9 | Building permits Ivey purchasing managers index Housing starts | Market services / ISM non-manufacturing index Fed interest rate decision Producer price index |
Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.3170 (6 week high) down to 1.3070 (1 week low) before climbing to 1.3115. The pairing then held a 1.3082-97 range for the balance of the session in which the USD broadly weakened across the board as global equity markets surged. Overnight, reports that the U.S. was looking for a trade deal with China further boosted global equity markets with the positive market sentiment broadly weakening the USD. The broad USD index fell to an 8 session low after having hit a 14 month high on Wednesday and USDCAD dropped from 1.3100 down to 1.3048 – a 7 day low. The pairing recovered to 1.3070 ahead of the jobs report. Canadian data was mixed with solid full-time gains overshadowed by another decline in wage inflation. U.S. headline data beat estimates while the unemployment rate and wage inflation met estimates. Also, Canada's trade surplus for August ($0.53 billion) was revised to a trade deficit of $0.55 billion. The USD recovered its overnight losses taking USDCAD up to session highs at 1.3111. The pairing has been relatively stable in a 1.3095 – 1.3112 range since despite U.S. equity markets falling into negative territory on reports that the U.S. is far from a trade agreement with China. Also, oil prices have fallen to 7 month lows (Oil was near 4 year highs and 20% higher in early October) on reports that some countries will be exempt from U.S. oil sanctions on Iran. Currently, the TSX is unchanged while the DJIA is down 0.14% having fallen nearly 300 pts from the overnight highs. EURCAD is up 0.25% trading between 1.4909 and 1.4982 – near 1 week highs. GBPCAD is unchanged trading between 1.6972 and 1.7041 – near 1 week highs. JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.01154 and 0.01162. Gold is unchanged trading between $1,229 and $1,236USD/oz., silver is up 0.58% trading between $14.62 and $14.91USD/oz., while oil is down 0.70% trading between $62.97 and $63.92 – near 7 month lows.
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, FXStreet, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of Canada, U.S. Federal Reserve, CNBC, Forexlive, CME Group