Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3145 up to 1.3259 – a 1 week high amidst general negative market risk sentiment, weaker oil prices, and a broadly stronger USD. NA equity markets recouped the bulk of their losses sending USDCAD back down towards 1.3215. Overnight, equities turned positive for the first time in 4 days with European bourses leading the way with near 2% gains. U.S. markets are following with strong gains early on. Currencies remain confined to relatively narrow ranges with the broad USD index holding near 2 week highs. USDCAD climbed to 1.3237 overnight but has since retreated to 1.3191. A rally higher stalled at 1.3218 and USDCAD is back down testing session lows.
Wall Street was poised for a rough session Thursday, as investors considered fast-dimming prospects for fiscal stimulus before the U.S. election and a host of new virus-related restrictions in Europe.
Traders continue to fixate on whether a stimulus deal of any size will transpire within the next three weeks, even as recent comments from lawmakers have overwhelmingly dampened hopes.
Stocks fluctuated as traders parsed results from big banks amid dwindling prospects for a pre-election stimulus deal. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said a surge in U.S. coronavirus cases to about 50,000 a day has added uncertainty to the outlook and may discourage businesses from hiring or investing. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have dug into their opposing stances on a pandemic relief, effectively killing off chances for a deal before the Nov. 3 election. With Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin headed to the Middle East next week, further negotiations to reach a deal may be put off. With the understanding that stimulus won't occur before the election, the market continues to grapple with the potential political outcomes. Earnings season continues to come into focus but it's been rather tough to draw inspiration from what have generally been noisy/messy figures from mostly financial services firms and banks that have reported thus far.
Yesterday, USDCAD eased lower from 1.3265 down to 1.3190 amidst general positive market risk sentiment, higher oil prices, and a broadly weaker USD. The trend continues today as the market remains hopeful for a U.S. stimulus package. Since Trump's comments on Tuesday about no further negotiations on a stimulus package until after the election sank the DJIA by 500 pts and propelled USDCAD up to 1.3340, there has been a change in tune with stimulus talks back on the table. Overnight, USDCAD dipped to 1.3160 before climbing to 1.3180 ahead of the Canadian jobs report. The September report was surprisingly strong more than doubling market expectations. Also, the majority of the jobs added were full time jobs (334,000). USDCAD dropped accordingly to 1.3133 before climbing back to 1.3158. A second run lower has again stalled at 1.3133 – near 1 month lows.
Stock advanced Thursday morning, after the three major indices closed at their highest levels in more than one month a day earlier, and investors digested a new round of jobless claims that were higher than expected.
Traders clung to hope that some aid out of Washington – if not a multi-trillion dollar, comprehensive virus relief package – might transpire in the near-term.
After climbing to a fresh weekly high of 1.3341 in the early trading hours of the European session, the USD/CAD pair lost its traction amid renewed USD weakness and rising crude oil prices. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3280, losing 0.3% on a daily basis. The broad-based USD strength after US President Donald Trump's decision to halt stimulus talks until after the election caused the pair to turn north late on Tuesday. However, with the market sentiment improving on hopes President Trump sending stimulus checks to American families and providing aid to airlines, the greenback started to weaken against its rivals. At the moment, the USD Dollar Index, which touched a daily high of 93.90 earlier in the day, is down 0.28% on the day at 93.59. Meanwhile, investors will be keeping a close on Wall Street's performance. A negative shift in risk sentiment could provide a boost to the USD and cause USD/CAD to turn north in the second half of the day.
Stocks traded flat Tuesday morning, as investors digested a number of developments around President Donald Trump's health and considered a moving target of possible election outcomes and prospects for further fiscal stimulus.
The S&P 500 hugged the flat line, after the blue-chip index closed at its highest level in nearly one month during the regular session on Monday. The energy sector led the advance as a risk-on mood sent crude oil prices sharply higher.
U.S. equities followed global stocks higher on optimism over economic stimulus and that President Donald Trump may soon leave the hospital. Treasury yields rose and the dollar weakened. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average all rebounded from Friday's swoon in the wake of Trump's coronavirus disclosure. Fiscal stimulus continues to be a wild card for the market, and uncertainty around the health of the president certainly looms large. So while there's a lot of noise out there, experienced traders may find bullish opportunities. Consumer companies and banks led a broad advance among European stocks. Equities in Asia notched gains, while crude oil rebounded from a three-week low. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said a decision on Trump's release from the hospital will be made after consultations with medical staff Monday morning. But Trump's condition remains clouded by confusion, with the president's effort to show strength contradicted by conflicting accounts from his doctors. On the stimulus front, Trump tweeted from the hospital that a deal needs to get done. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was optimistic on Friday that a bipartisan stimulus bill can be done, and said his diagnosis "kind of changes the dynamic." Elsewhere in markets, the Taiwan dollar closed at the strongest level since 2011 amid speculation the local central bank will loosen its grip on the rallying currency.
Yesterday, USDCAD initially dropped from 1.3322 down to 1.3280 before briefly climbing to 1.3315. The rate then declined to 1.3267 – near a two week low before holding near 1.3290 for the balance of the session. During the Asian session, it was reported that both President Trump and his wife had tested positive for covid-19. Risk aversion flows ensued sending the USD and JPY broadly higher while U.S. equity indices declined by 2%. USDCAD climbed to 1.3329 before retracing back to 1.3293 ahead of the U.S employment report. The results were mixed – the jobs added missed estimates but prior data was revised higher. The unemployment rate dropped sharply from last month although that was a direct result of fewer people looking for work (lower participation rate). The initial reaction was a stronger USD sending USDCAD up to 1.3331. The move was short-lived as U.S. equities rebounded sharply erasing the bulk of overnight losses. USDCAD dropped to 1.3302 before climbing back to 1.3318. The CAD is holding up quite well given that oil prices are down sharply today trading near 4 month lows.
Stocks moved higher Thursday morning heading into the first session of October and the fourth quarter, supported by expectations that Washington could provide more stimulus money for a recovery that may be losing momentum. Oil dropped and precious metals moved higher.
The USD/CAD pair came under heavy bearish pressure during the American trading hours on Wednesday and touched a fresh weekly low of 1.3317. As of writing, the pair was down 0.40% on a daily basis at 1.3325. A new USD-selling wave hit the markets in the last hour. The fact that there were no clear catalysts behind the USD weakness suggests that month-end flows came into play toward the end of London trading. Meanwhile, the upbeat market mood, as reflected by the strong gains witnessed in Wall Street's main indexes, is helping risk-sensitive crude oil prices traction. With the barrel of West Texas Intermediate rising nearly 1.5% at $39.65, the commodity-related loonie is preserving its strength against its rivals. Earlier in the day, the data published by Statistics Canada showed that the Canadian economy expanded by 3% on a monthly basis in July as expected. On the other hand, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis third estimate revealed that the real GDP in the second quarter contracted by 31.4%. Moreover, the ADP reported that private sector employment in September rose by 749,000, compared to analysts' estimate of 650,000.
The end-of-month rebound in global equities faded as investors assessed a scaled-back fiscal stimulus proposal in the U.S. against the rising toll of the pandemic.
Oil slipped toward $40 in New York as traders looked to U.S. inventory data for clues on demand recovery. Treasuries were little changed, while the dollar fell.
Yesterday, USDCAD initially climbed from 1.3370 up to 1.3418 – a fresh 7 week high before falling to 1.3325. The pairing then moved back to hold near 1.3360 for the balance of the session. The USD index had rallied 4 consecutive days touching a 2 month high before correcting lower part-way through yesterday's NA session. The USD uptrend has resumed today as the USD index has climbed to a fresh 2 month high again. There were some notable risk off flows during the overnight session with Germany's DAX index down 2%. USDCAD has climbed back above the 1.3400 level this morning and is trading just shy of yesterday's high point.
Stock slumped after data showing high American jobless claims added to concern over a slow economic recovery without further stimulus. The dollar climbed.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists halved their forecast for U.S. growth in the fourth quarter after deciding there will not be additional fiscal stimulus until next year. The researchers led by Jan Hatzius now predict the world's largest economy will expand 3% on a quarterly annualized basis, down from the 6% they previously anticipated.
Stocks slumped to a two-month low amid growing concern over tighter coronavirus restrictions and as a report detailed suspicious transactions at global banks. Treasuries and the dollar climbed. The S&P 500 dropped for a fourth day -- its longest slide since February -- with commodity and industrial companies leading losses. Oil tumbled as Libya signaled the resumption of some crude exports. A new investigation by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists says JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank AG and HSBC Holdings Plc were among the global banks who "kept profiting from powerful and dangerous players" in the past two decades even after the U.S. imposed penalties on these financial institutions. The documents detailed more than $2 trillion in transactions between 1999 and 2017 that were flagged by financial institutions' internal compliance officers as possible money laundering or other criminal activity, the report said. As U.S. deaths related to Covid-19 approached 200,000, former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said he expects the nation to experience "at least one more cycle" of the virus in the fall and winter. Germany's health minister warned that the trend of cases in Europe is "worrying" amid expectations that restrictions could soon be extended to London. President Donald Trump said he wants his looming Supreme Court pick confirmed before the Nov. 3 election, escalating pressure on Senate Republicans as he seeks to protect his most vulnerable members.
Yesterday, USDCAD initially climbed from 1.3170 up to 1.3247 – just shy of the 1 month high (1.3260) tested last week - before falling back to 1.3180. Another rally stalled at 1.3230 with subsequent rallies stalling at 1.3220. The rate dropped back to 1.3150/55 in late trade on broad USD weakness as equity markets pared losses and oil prices climbed 4%. The DJIA had opened the day down nearly 400 pts before swinging back into positive territory. The USD broadly weakened during the Asian session with USDCAD falling to 1.3137 before moving back to 1.3170. Canadian retail sales data for July came in lower than expected sending USDCAD back higher to test 1.3200. Equity markets, which have been very volatile these past few sessions have trimmed earlier losses sending the USD broadly lower vs the other majors and USDCAD down to 1.3175 accordingly.
Stocks were pinned deep in the red on Thursday, as caution returned to the market in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision to keep monetary policy loose for the immediate future. The US dollar rose against its peers.
On Wednesday, the Fed signaled that near-zero interest rates would remain for at least the next three years, as the US economy continues to face risks around the ongoing pandemic. The Federal Open Market Committee issued expectations for interest rates to remain near zero until at least the end of 2023.
U.S. equities advanced with European stocks after data from China and Germany showed the economic recovery is gaining traction. The dollar weakened for a third day, while crude oil rose.
The offshore yuan climbed to the highest level in a year and stocks in Shanghai advanced on evidence that China is accelerating out of the virus slump. Retail sales rose for the first time this year in August and industrial production expanded.
Yesterday, USDCAD initially dropped from 1.3167 down to 1.3120 before climbing to 1.3200. The pair closely tracked equity market flows which were positive in the opening hour only to move lower and finish the day with steep losses. Overnight, it was a similar story with North American equity futures pointing to gains. That led to USDCAD retracing a good portion of yesterday's move with a fall from 1.3195 down to 1.3150. The move lower was short-lived as equity indexes moved into negative territory while oil prices fell back below the $37 level. USDCAD climbed back towards session highs at 1.3194. U.S. inflation data was a touch higher than expected and the USD has recovered the bulk of its overnight losses this morning despite equity markets swinging back into positive territory.
The Dow was flat this morning while the Nasdaq 100 Index has climbed, indicating technology shares will extend their rebound. The euro added to gains after the region's central bank was said to agree that there's no reason to overreact to the currency's strength.
Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. rose with Nasdaq 100 futures adding 0.9%. The S&P 500 also turned higher even as data showed jobless claims failed to drop last week as anticiapted. Treasuries declined, while gold advanced with the weaker dollar. BP Plc slipped after making its first venture into offshore wind power with a $1.1 billion purchase of U.S. assets from Norway's Equinor ASA.