On Friday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3290 up to 1.3339 before falling back to 1.3277. A second attempt higher stalled at 1.3328 and the pairing settled near 1.3280 to close the week. Early Asian markets were unsettled by the escalation of the U.S. / China trade war and subsequent market sell-off on Friday. Risk aversion drove the JPY higher and the AUD & NZD lower in early trade (JPY hitting near 3 year highs vs the CAD and USD while the AUD dropped towards a 9 year low) USDCAD gapped higher from Friday's close testing 1.3315/20 before falling back to 1.3290. Flows reversed partway through the session with oil prices climbing nearly 4.5% from the lows while North American equities have gained ground. USDCAD has fallen from 1.3316 to session lows near 1.3270 this morning.
Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3285 up to 1.3316 before falling back to 1.3275. A second attempt to break 1.3316 failed and the pairing settled near 1.3290 – unchanged on the day. The CAD weakened in early Asian trade on headlines that the European Union was banning some Canadian fruit imports. Markets moved into negative territory overnight as China announced further tariffs on U.S. goods while oil prices plunged 3.5% in minutes taking USDCAD up to 1.3339. The 1.3330 – 1.3345 area has been tested about 10 times these past few weeks and has not been breached since mid-June. Canadian retail sales came in better than expected sending USDCAD down to 1.3310. The pairing bounced back to 1.3330 before falling to session lows @ 1.3277 after U.S. Fed Chairman Powell's speech. He commented that the Fed "will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion" also noting that the economy faces "significant risks."
Stocks drifted higher Thursday morning as investors considered corporate earnings, digested European and domestic economic data. Market participants this week have been waiting to hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will deliver remarks at the central bank's annual Jackson Hole symposium Friday. Investors widely hope that Powell's rhetoric will lay the groundwork for rate cuts after the central bank's next few meetings. As of Thursday morning, markets priced in a 98.1% probability of a 25 basis point ease after the September meeting, as well as a 68.1% probability that rates would be another 25 basis points lower after the October meeting, according to CME Group.
U.S. stock indexes on Tuesday opened lower as investors appeared to await guidance from the Federal Reserve on monetary policy--a key catalysts for a market that has been beset by worries about an impending economic recession. Investors were watching quarterly reports from major retailers including Home Depot Inc.HD, +4.40% and Kohl's Corp. KSS, -3.53%. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump on Monday said the Fed should cut benchmark rates by 1 percentage point from its current range of 2%-2.25%, which is viewed as aggressive policy for a U.S. economy considered slowing but not in the throes of a recession. A slide in bond yields, as prices gain, has been also unsettling investors. The 10-year Treasury bond yields TMUBMUSD10Y, -3.31% 1.55%, off more than 4 basis points.
Stocks climbed after the Trump administration signaled progress on trade negotiations and speculation grew that major central banks will keep shoring up their economies. The S&P 500 index extended gains into a 3rd day as U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the nation will delay restrictions that the Trump administration has imposed on some business operations of China's Huawei Technologies Co. Long-dated bonds are moving the Treasury yield curve away from inversion, as the U.S. government considers borrowing for a century. Bunds tumbled as Germany was said to be preparing fiscal stimulus measures. Crude rallied after a drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil field. Besides trade, Investors will be sifting through Federal Reserve Jerome Powell's remarks on Friday about the challenges for monetary policy at the central bank's annual Jackson Hole symposium.
Yesterday, USDCAD dipped from 1.3320 down to 1.3285 before climbing to 1.3339 – briefly gaining on Wednesday's high of 1.3326 but short of the August high of 1.3345. After 3 attempts to break above 1.3339, the pairing eased lower towards 1.3309 to finish the day unchanged. Global equity markets have stabilized today and are on the rise causing broad JPY and USD weakness. USDCAD has fallen from 1.3325 down to 1.3285 – matching yesterday's low. Earlier this morning an OPEC report suggested a "somewhat bearish" outlook for oil markets over the balance of this year. Oil prices (WTI) saw a quick 2.5% drop to session lows but prices have bounced back into positive territory. USDCAD bounced to 1.3310 before declining back towards 1.3289.
U.S. stocks swung between small gains and losses Thursday as upbeat data on Americans' spending habits helped to ease investor fears about a coming recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 25 points, or 0.12%, a day after the blue-chip index slid 800 points--its biggest decline this year. The S&P 500 added less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2%. US / China trade concerns took a breather.
Mounting signs of a global economic slowdown hammered stocks and drove demand for sovereign bonds to such an extent that shorter-term yields rose above long rates in the U.S. for the first time since 2007.The S&P 500 sank 2% as the inverted gap in rates for 2 and 10-year Treasuries flashed a warning that has normally preceded a recession . European shares plunged after Germany's economy contracted in the 2nd quarter, adding to angst fueled by weak Chinese retail and industrial numbers. The British yield curve also inverted for the first time since the financial crisis and the pound edged higher after inflation unexpectedly rose. Government bonds rallied across Europe. The warning emanating from bond markets spooked investors already seeking shelter from the fraught geopolitical climate and the impact of the global trade war just a day after equities rallied on a tariff reprieve from President Trump. While curve inversions normally precede economic turndowns, they do not necessarily signal imminent doom.
U.S. stocks rallied after the Trump administration said it will delay tariffs on some Chinese goods until December, while Treasuries fell after a pickup in inflation dented arguments for cutting interest rates. The S&P 500 Index spiked higher after trade officials named a broad swath of consumer goods that would be spared from tariffs at the current Sept. 1 deadline. Apple and Caterpillar surged more than 4%, while makers of computer hardware and chips pushed the Nasdaq 100 higher by 2%. Oil surged, the dollar strengthened and gold plunged. The trade headlines sparked demand for risk assets that had been under pressure for more than a week as investors grew increasingly concerned the spat with China would slam global growth. Rising tension in Hong Kong and Argentina had added to the poor sentiment. The narrowing of the yield curve kept gains in check, as the recession signal emanating from the bond market grew louder
U.S. stocks slid and Treasuries rose as political unrest in Hong Kong hit markets already on edge over trade tensions. Argentina's peso sank 15% after voters turned on the president in a primary vote. The S&P 500 Index fell back toward 2,900 and is now off 2.5% in August. The overnight session turned sour when authorities closed Hong Kong's airport and a Chinese official said the city was at a "critical juncture." The Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased a 1% advance. Argentina's credit default swap spread spiked higher as investors price in a far greater likelihood of a default. Emerging-market assets slumped. The weakness in stocks fed demand for haven assets, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield lower and boosting the yen for a 4th day. China's central bank fixing continued to signal its determination to manage an orderly depreciation. Italian bonds led gains in European debt after Fitch affirmed the country's credit rating on Friday. The pound strengthened following 3 sessions of declines. Monday's reversals provided another reminder of the fragile mood across markets as it extended the tumultuous start to August. Gains for the safest government bonds show lingering caution by traders who've increased bets for central bank easing in recent weeks, as the U.S. and China escalate their trade war and a slew of global data point to slowing growth.
Yesterday, USDCAD erased Wednesday's gains with a drop from 1.3314 down to 1.3221. Positive market sentiment, higher commodity prices, and lower U.S. yields saw the USD broadly weaken. Trump was also noted commenting on the strength of the USD. USDCAD was holding near session lows at 1.3210 this morning when the Canadian employment data was released. Weaker than expected data saw USDCAD quickly move up to 1.3275. The move higher was short-lived and the pairing dropped back to new session lows at 1.3205. We have since seen a brief rally to 1.3244 follows by a decline to 1.3220. Oil prices have surged while U.S. 10 year yields hold near 3 year lows. Trump mentioned today that he would like to see the Fed lower interest rates by 1%. Markets are now pricing in a 46% of 2 more interest rate cuts and a 36.7% of 3 more cuts by the end of this year.
U.S. stocks opened higher Thursday as stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data and upbeat indicators in Europe eased concerns about a sharp deterioration in the global economic outlook. Thursday's stock moves follow a bout of market volatility, highlighting uncertainty about how the trade and currency battle between the U.S. and China will play out. U.S. stocks whipsawed Wednesday, with the Dow swinging more than 600 points at its widest span before closing almost flat. Elsewhere, the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 1%, led by gains in the technology and oil-and-gas sectors. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.9%. Feeding into the sense of relief was an unexpected turnaround in Chinese exports, which climbed 3.3% in July from a year earlier. In addition, the Bank of France's July business survey indicated an acceleration in growth in the eurozone's No. 2 economy. Economists at Daiwa Capital Markets called that report, "arguably as upbeat as might have been hoped".
U.S. equities slumped and bonds rallied globally after a series of dovish central-bank surprises underscored escalating concern over the outlook for growth. The S&P 500 Index's loss approached 1% in heavy trading volume as the 30-year Treasury yield closed in on an all-time low. German rates dropped to a record as industrial production registered the biggest decline in almost a decade. Currency markets were volatile after policy makers cut rates in New Zealand, India and Thailand. Traders are selling riskier assets after this week saw the biggest one-day plunge in global equities since February 2018, fearing an escalation in the trade war will spur a global recession. Threats of expanded tariffs are also creating uncertainty in corporate boardrooms, spurring concern there will be a pullback in capital outlays and a drop in company earnings with central banks lacking the firepower to buoy growth. As fears of a global rush to devalue increased, New Zealand's dollar tumbled after a bigger-than-expected rate cut, and Australia's dollar dropped to a decade-low on bets its central bank will follow suit. The yuan dipped after China set its reference rate slightly weaker than expected. India's rupee and the Thai baht slipped. The U.S. dollar was steady, while the yen gained and gold rallied toward $1,500 an ounce. The dovish moves by three central banks underscore the global shift toward easier policy even after the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish stance last week. President Donald Trump again on Wednesday urged the Fed to ease policy, saying in a tweet that "They must Cut Rates bigger and faster, and stop their ridiculous quantitative tightening NOW."
U.S. and European stocks clawed back some of their recent losses after China moved to stabilize its currency, providing a respite for investors stung by an escalation in trade tensions.The S&P 500 Index rose as much as 1% while manufacturing shares led the Stoxx Europe 600 higher as China fixed the yuan at stronger than 7 per dollar, the level that spurred a global sell-off Monday. The dollar steadied and gold held near a six-year high, while Treasuries gave back some of yesterday's surge, when they reached the most extreme yield-curve inversion since the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis
Garo Mavyan | Retail FX & Precious Metals Trader
After continued attempts and unending failures to secure Brexit, the embattled Theresa May has finally relinquished her post as Prime Minister to make way for a successor, Boris Johnson. Johnson, who became Prime Minister in late July, must now continue negotiations with the European Union to deliver Brexit before the impending October deadline this year. However, he is seen as a controversial figure, and is one of the most ardent Eurosceptics in British politics. Last year, he proudly resigned from May's government in protest to her handling of the negotiations. It therefore comes as no surprise that during his short reign, he has renewed tensions with EU leadership in Brussels and has sent the markets spiraling closer towards a state of total panic.
Yesterday, USDCAD initially climbed from 1.3194 up to 1.3249 – a 6 week high before falling to 1.3182 as equity markets erased the bulk of the post-Fed sell-off. In the late morning, Trump surprised the markets by announcing another tariff on China – 10% on $300 billion worth of goods. Equity markets and oil prices tumbled (the DJIA dropped over 600pts after having climbed more than 350 pts while oil fell 7.5%) sending USDCAD back up to 1.3243. The move was short-lived with the pair settling near 1.3210. USDCAD climbed back to 1.3240 in early morning trade ahead of the U.S. jobs data which came in largely as expected. Wage inflation data was touch higher while there was a negative revision to prior data (41,000). USDCAD moved marginally higher to 1.3266 but has fallen back to 1.3220 amidst broad-based USD weakness. Equity markets continue to tumble while U.S. 10 year yields have fallen to 1.87% - near 3 year lows. The probability of another U.S. interest rate cut in September has climbed to nearly 100%.
U.S. stocks rose as traders digested better-than-expected corporate earnings and awaited Friday's jobs report for clues on the economy's strength after the Federal Reserve first rate cut in a decade. Treasuries rose and the dollar pared gains after key factory data disappointed. The S&P 500 rose for the first time in four days after sinking the most in two months when Chairman Jerome Powell signaled additional cuts are not guaranteed. Attention now turns to Friday's nonfarm payrolls data. General Motors Co. rallied after results beat analysts estimates, while tech lead gains as the FAANG cohort of megacap companies all advanced. The greenback pared gains, and 10-year Treasury yields slipped below 2% after a measure of U.S. manufacturing missed, but still pointed to expansion. The pound weakened, extending its losing streak, after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged. West Texas oil fell below $57 a barrel.
U.S. stocks fluctuated as investors digested earnings and the end of the most recent trade talks with China. The negotiations between Chinese and American officials ended without much of a sign of headway also weighed on sentiment, but the 2 sides did agree to continue discussions. The U.S. Fed will announce its interest rate decision today at 11am, where they are widely expected to cut rates by 25bpt. Current markets have already priced in this anticipate cut. Chairman Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference at 11:30am will be key, as markets participants assess the outlook for growth and the prospect of additional cuts this fall. Markets are currently pricing about a 90bpts in Fed cuts over the next 12 months.
Whatever shred of optimism markets had about the ongoing trade negotiations were dealt as a severe blow when President Trump flew off the handle again at China for not buying American agricultural products.
Following another month of escalating tensions, agreement on practically anything would have been viewed positively, but I think you can throw that view out the window. As far as reaching any middle ground, something that China has been demanding in these trade negotiations all along, with the US economy doing well and equity markets at record highs the Whitehouse would be less likely to meet China halfway. President Trump has probably resigned himself the fact that China might roll the dice on the US 2020 election hoping for a more trade compromising Democrat to be voted into power.
The USD/CAD pair traded with a mild positive bias on the first day of a new week and remained well within the striking distance of one-month tops set on Friday. The pair built on its recent recovery from yearly lows and got an additional boost on Friday following the release of stronger-than-expected US GDP report, showing that the economic growth stood at 2.1% annualized pace during the second quarter of 2019. The positive momentum, however, faltered near the 1.3200 handle, though the pullback turned out to be short-lived, rather was quickly bought into at the start of a new trading week amid the prevalent bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar. This coupled with a modest pullback in crude oil prices further undermined demand for the commodity-linked currency-Loonie and remained supportive, with bulls now eyeing a sustained move beyond the 1.3200 round figure mark. Given that the Fed is likely to refrain from announcing any aggressive monetary policy easing at its upcoming meeting on July 30-31, a convincing breakthrough the mentioned handle will set the stage for an extension of the recent appreciating move.