Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver December 18, 2019


U.S. stocks pared early gains as investors digested a flurry of corporate news as the impeachment vote loomed and trade worries retreated. Treasuries slipped and the British pound weakened. The S&P 500 Index fluctuated early Wednesday, a day after reaching another record amid positive U.S. factory and housing data. With few big economic headlines imminent, and much of the U.S. focused on the impeachment vote, investors may take a wait-and-see stance as the holidays near. With global stocks close to all-time highs and the U.S.-China trade accord announced Friday yet to be signed, traders are finding few reasons to bid prices higher. The outlook for America's monetary policy remains steady -- two Federal Reserve policy makers reiterated that interest rates are on hold -- yet the miserable results from FedEx were a reminder of the headwinds to growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index also struggled for traction as national benchmarks traded mixed, with Germany's gauge underperforming even as data showed business expectations improved for a third month. The pound extended its losses after tumbling Tuesday on renewed concern that a no-deal Brexit is possible. The dollar strengthened against most of its G-10 peers.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver December 18, 2019


U.S. stocks pared early gains as investors digested a flurry of corporate news as the impeachment vote loomed and trade worries retreated. Treasuries slipped and the British pound weakened. The S&P 500 Index fluctuated early Wednesday, a day after reaching another record amid positive U.S. factory and housing data. With few big economic headlines imminent, and much of the U.S. focused on the impeachment vote, investors may take a wait-and-see stance as the holidays near. With global stocks close to all-time highs and the U.S.-China trade accord announced Friday yet to be signed, traders are finding few reasons to bid prices higher. The outlook for America's monetary policy remains steady -- two Federal Reserve policy makers reiterated that interest rates are on hold -- yet the miserable results from FedEx were a reminder of the headwinds to growth. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index also struggled for traction as national benchmarks traded mixed, with Germany's gauge underperforming even as data showed business expectations improved for a third month. The pound extended its losses after tumbling Tuesday on renewed concern that a no-deal Brexit is possible. The dollar strengthened against most of its G-10 peers.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver December 16, 2019


U.S. equities climbed toward a new high, and European stocks reached a record, amid hopes that a partial trade deal between America and China will ease a key risk for investors heading into year-end. Treasuries fell. With tech and health-care leading the charge, the S&P 500 Index gained in the wake of the agreement announced Dec. 13 that will see Washington reduce tariffs and Beijing increase purchases of American farm goods, although many details are still to be ironed out. The Stoxx Europe 600 became the latest major equity gauge to hit a new peak as it jumped for a fourth day, led by gains in financial and industrial shares. Stocks were mixed in Asia. Equities in Shanghai rose after Chinese data showed industrial output and retail sales both exceeded expectations. The pound strengthened, though it trimmed gains after U.K. factories posted the weakest performance in more than 7 years. The announcement of the preliminary U.S.-China deal staved off a scheduled Dec. 15 tariff hike, a prospect that had loomed large for markets. It remains unclear how China will follow through on pledges to boost American agricultural imports, and how quickly the U.S. promise to roll back half of a September tariff hike will happen. Elsewhere, oil held near a 3-month high and gold was steady. Turkey's lira dropped the most in almost two months as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned of retaliation over potential U.S. sanctions.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver December 13, 2019



Yesterday, USDCAD tested last week's lows @ 1.3160 before climbing to 1.3194. There were reports of a U.S. China trade deal (phase one) with a 50% roll back on $360 billion worth of tariffs. Equities and commodities markets cheered the news with all of the major currencies advancing while the USD and JPY saw broad declines. The moves continued late in the NA session as the UK election results filtered in. Once it was reported that the Conservatives had a majority (making the Brexit process easier) the GBP soared – GBPCAD climbed more than 5 cents on the day to trade at the highest level since April 2018. The JPY dropped towards the lowest level in 8 months. USDCAD broke below last week's low to 1.3150 – near a 6 week low. Today, reports suggest some confusion over the completion of the U.S. / China trade agreement. Trump did make an announcement this morning confirming phase one of a trade deal but a smaller portion of the tariffs are being rolled back. Yesterday's market / currency moves have partially reversed with USDCAD climbing back to 1.3200.

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Daily Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver Dec 11, 2019


U.S. stocks were little changed as investors prepared for a week brimming with potential catalysts, from central bank meetings to the looming America-China tariff deadline. Treasuries held modest gains. The S&P 500 fluctuated near an all-time high after weak China export data, with investors awaiting news on whether Washington will go ahead with a planned Dec. 15 tariff hike. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped. Stock indexes posted modest increases in Tokyo and Seoul, though gains mostly fizzled in Hong Kong and Shanghai. The pound edged upward as polls continued to show the U.K. Conservative Party on course to win a majority in Thursday's election, which would likely mean Britain leaving the European Union by Jan. 31. With time running out for the U.S. and China to reach a deal that would ward off an escalation in tariffs, markets will be watching closely for any signs of progress. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday the two sides are haggling over the amount of American farm products Beijing is willing to purchase. Data showed China's exports fell 1.1% in November, with those to the U.S. tumbling 23%, underscoring why the Asian nation may want to resolve the dispute. Also in focus for investors this week will be central banks, with policy meetings at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that may offer clues on whether more monetary easing is in store in 2020. Elsewhere, oil slipped, trimming last week's rally spurred by Saudi Arabia promising significant additional production cuts beyond what was agreed with fellow OPEC members.

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VBCE Foreign Exchange Wrap Up for Dec. 2 – Dec. 6, 2019

Steve Brown, Senior Corporate Trader | Stevebrown@vbce.ca

The CAD improved mid-week to trade near its strongest level in a month against most currencies with the exception of the GBP which was an all-around out-performer. Unfortunately, the bulk of the gains were erased on Friday after the Canadian employment data surprised to the downside. By the end of the week, the CAD was the 2nd worst performing currency just behind the USD (The USD DXY index dropped towards a 2 month low). Initially, USDCAD climbed from 1.3280 up to 1.3322 – near a 7 week high before falling back to 1.3283. On Wednesday, USDCAD tested the 1.3300 level again before falling to 1.3180. The catalyst for the sudden CAD strength was the Bank of Canada interest rate decision / monetary policy statement. Given recent speeches by BOC members and the fact that other central banks around the world have been cutting interest rates / maintain dovish policies, the market was expecting the BOC to signal an interest rate cut for January. Instead, the BOC remained firmly neutral if not a touch hawkish with its statement. The Bank sees the global economy stabilizing and growth edging higher the next couple of years. In Canada, "investment spending unexpectedly showed strong growth" while inflation "remains at target". Also, BOC member Lane stated that there was "no reason for the Bank of Canada to move in step with the U.S. Federal Reserve." The U.S. Fed has cut interest rates 3 times this year while the BOC has held steady – Canada has the highest interest rate of the G7 countries. Also aiding the CAD was an 8% surge higher in oil prices – completely erasing the 5% sell-off that occurred on Friday, Nov. 29. Oil prices neared 6 month highs after comments from the OPEC meeting suggested deeper than expected oil production cuts by Saudi Arabia. USDCAD briefly declined to 1.3159 – a 1 month low before holding a 1.3170 – 1.3188 range ahead of Friday's employment reports. There was a strong divergence in employment reports – Canada's report much weaker than expected while the U.S. headline data was surprisingly strong. Canada shed 32,800 fulltime and 38,400 part-time jobs in November while the unemployment rate surged to 5.9% - the highest in over 1 year. U.S. ADP employment data out Wednesday suggested a downside miss – an addition of just 67,000 jobs vs exp 140,000. The U.S. added 266,000 jobs in November while the unemployment rate ticked down towards a new multi-decade low. The net result was a move from 1.3170 up to 1.3270 – almost completely erasing the post-Bank of Canada move lower earlier in the week.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver December 6, 2019


Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.3204 down to 1.3159, close to a 1 month low before climbing back to hold a 1.3170 – 1.3185 range for the balance of the session. There was a strong divergence in employment reports this morning – Canada's report much weaker than expected while the U.S. headline data was surprisingly strong. Canada shed 32,800 fulltime and 38,400 part-time jobs in November while the unemployment rate surged to 5.9% - the highest in over 1 year. U.S. ADP employment data out Wednesday suggested a downside miss – an addition of just 67,000 jobs vs exp 140,000. The U.S. added 266,000 jobs in November while the unemployment rate ticked down towards a new multi-decade low. USDCAD has nearly erased the post-Bank of Canada move from Wednesday. The pairing surged to 1.3260 with pull backs limited to 1.3244. A second move higher has stalled at 1.3270. Oil prices are higher this morning on reports of additional oil production cuts by Saudi Arabia during day two of the OPEC meeting.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver December 5, 2019


Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.3300 down to 1.3185 as the Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 1.75% and did not hint at a possible rate cut for January. The USDCAD had been trading near a 2 month high prior to the statement and ended the session near a 1 month low. The BOC's tone was firmly neutral if not a touch hawkish. Also, oil prices surged higher completely erasing last Friday's 5% sell-off. Overnight, BOC member Lane commented that there was "no reason for the Bank of Canada to move in step with the U.S. Federal Reserve." The U.S. Fed has cut interest rates 3 times this year while the BOC has held steady – Canada has the highest interest rate of the G7 countries. USDCAD has moved lower to 1.3159 before climbing back to 1.3185. The market now awaits the Canadian and U.S. jobs reports due out at 5:30am tomorrow.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver December 4, 2018


The Bank of Canada said there's evidence the global economy is stabilizing, while the domestic economy remains resilient, in an interest rate decision Wednesday that gave little indication policy makers are in a rush to lower borrowing costs. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 1.75% for a ninth consecutive meeting, retaining language from its previous statement that it judges the current interest rate is "appropriate." The prolonged pause has left Canada with the highest policy rate among advanced economies. The decision showcases a central bank still comfortable with its wait-and-see stance. In the statement, the central bank said the October projection for a recovery in global growth "appears to be intact," even as ongoing international trade disputes remain the biggest source of risk. It also continued to characterize domestic economic conditions as resilient.

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VBCE Foreign Exchange Wrap Up for Nov. 18 – Nov. 29, 2019

Steve Brown, Senior Corporate Trader | Stevebrown@vbce.ca


The CAD was little changed over the past two weeks. During the week of Nov. 18th – 22nd, USDCAD initially climbed from 1.3225 up to 1.3328 only to fall back to 1.3254. U.S. – China trade headlines continued to influence market moves with some concerns on the progress of a trade deal after the U.S. openly supported Hong Kong protesters. Most global equity indices suffered losses before positive trade rhetoric saw equity markets reverse course and climb to new historical highs. China's chief negotiator was "cautiously optimistic" about a phase-one trade deal while U.S. President Trump claimed that Phase-One of the trade deal was nearly complete. Central Bank policy was also a notable driver. After failing to sustain trade below 1.3200 on Tuesday, Nov. 19th, USDCAD pushed higher to 1.3273 after dovish comments from Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Wilkins. The uptrend continued the next day with a move to 1.3328 after the U.S. Fed minutes confirmed a likely pause in interest rate cuts. The U.S. Fed has already cut its key interest rate three times this year and now sits just below the Bank of Canada which currently maintains the highest interest rate within the G7. After a pull-back to 1.3295, USDCAD climbed to 1.3326 on Nov. 21 before falling back to 1.3270 after Bank of Canada Governor Poloz commented that "Canada's monetary conditions are about right given the current economic situation that is being challenged by global trade tensions." Canadian retail sales data out Friday were slightly better than expected sending USDCAD down to 1.3254 before a wave of broad-based USD strength saw USDCAD finish the week just under 1.3300. During the week of Nov. 25 – 29, USDCAD held an uneventful 1.3268 – 1.3319 range despite broad-based USD strength taking the USD index up to a 6 week high. Month-end flows saw the index fall back towards 1 week lows while oil prices which had held near 2 month hjghs in recent sessions plunged 5% towards 1 month lows. The CAD was unphased finishing the week with a 25 bp gain over the USD. During Friday's session, USDCAD initially climbed from 1.3280 up to 1.3315 ahead of the Canadian GDP data. Better than expected data along with broad-based USD weakness saw USDCAD decline to 1.3272 – close to a 1week low.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver November 29, 2019


Yesterday, USDCAD held an uneventful 1.3280 – 1.3298 range. Over the past 2 weeks, USDCAD has been testing 6 week highs although there has been very little momentum / follow-through above 1.3300 with the pair holding a 1.3254 – 1.3328 range. USDCAD climbed briefly above 1.33 this morning ahead of the Canadian GDP report. The monthly data was as expected while the quarterly data was marginally better sending USDCAD from 1.3309 down to 1.3287. From there the pairing climbed to 1.3314 but has since fallen to intra-day lows at 1.3277 on broad-based month-end USD selling. The USD index had climbed to a 6 week high earlier this morning but has since fallen to a 1 week low. The CAD has held up reasonably well this morning despite a near 4% plunge in oil prices on comments from Russia's Energy Minister ahead of next week's OPEC meeting where it is widely expected that oil production cuts will be extended.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver November 29, 2019


Extremely quiet trading this morning as the U.S. markets are all closed for the Thanksgiving Day Holiday and all other markets are experiencing very thin trading bands. The Canadian dollar has traded in less than a 20bp range and all the other majors are stuck in similar trades. All Canadian eyes will be on the GDP release tomorrow.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver November 27, 2019


U.S. equities gained as the risk-on mood that's driven American benchmarks to record highs showed few signs of abating. The USD strengthened and Treasury yields rose. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes rose for a fourth day, while Boeing Co. weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average after a report showed damage to a plane during a test was greater than previously disclosed. Data on U.S. economic growth and claims for unemployment beat analysts' expectations. The Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark rose to within 1% of its record close, with 15 of 19 sector groups advancing. Equities climbed across Asia except in China, where data showed the economy slowing further, as investors continue to monitor developments on trade. President Trump declared Tuesday that talks on the first phase of a deal were nearly done after negotiators from both sides spoke by telephone.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver November 26, 2019


U.S. equities reached record highs after China's comments about prospects for a "phase-one" trade deal boosted optimism. Treasuries and most European sovereign bonds rose. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite reached records after China said that Sino-American trade negotiators "reached consensus" on certain issues in a phone call and agreed to stay in contact on the remaining points.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver November 25, 2019


U.S. equities climbed to records on optimism over China trade relations and a fresh wave of merger and acquisition activity. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed to all time highs after China said it will tighten intellectual property rules, a move aimed at boosting the chances of a trade deal between the two largest economies. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced, with 19 industry sectors in the green. Equities climbed across Asia, led by those in Hong Kong, where local elections brought a landslide victory to pro-democracy candidates. The USD was mixed against most of its major peers and weakened versus the GBP. While doubts about the rally remain and haven investments such as bonds seem well supported, stocks globally are approaching a third month of gains.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver November 21, 2019


Equities fell on signs of tension in trade talks between China and the U.S. The dollar held steady and Treasuries dipped as China's chief trade negotiator reportedly said he was cautiously optimistic about reaching a phase-one accord. Pessimists focused on speculation Donald Trump may sign legislation backing Hong Kong protestors, setting up further conflict between the nations

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver November 20, 2019


U.S. equities were mixed following declines in Europe and Asia as concern that American support for Hong Kong protesters could complicate trade talks with China was offset by positive reports from retailers. The dollar rose alongside Treasuries. Telecom and automaker shares weighed on the S&P 500 Index. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to a two-week low and the offshore yuan slipped after China's threated retaliation following the Senate's passage of a bill that sought to support Hong Kong's autonomy from Beijing. After reaching fresh highs Monday, U.S. stocks have struggled for direction as investors search for a new catalyst to drive markets. While investors are sensitive to any reports on the economy, the biggest overhang continues to be trade talks between officials from the world's two largest economies. Analysts are looking for signs of progress as the U.S. and China seek a phase-one agreement to end their trade war. Travel and leisure companies led the retreat in the Stoxx Europe 600 index, with all major regional benchmarks in the red. Swedbank AB dropped after a report that American authorities are investigating possible breaches of sanctions against Russia by the Swedish lender. Hong Kong shares fell along with Japanese and South Korean benchmarks. Australian equities slumped after allegations of financial crimes at Westpac Banking Corp. hit financial stocks. Oil gained, paring some of Tuesday's more-than 3% loss.

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VBCE Foreign Exchange Wrap Up for Nov. 4 – Nov. 15, 2019

Steve Brown, Senior Corporate Trader | Stevebrown@vbce.ca

The CAD was mixed these past two weeks with gains vs. the EUR & AUD and losses vs. the USD & GBP. Overall, trading ranges were fairly narrow with markets still tracking progress with regards to a U.S. / China trade deal. There were initial reports that both sides agreed to roll back tariffs upon completion of phase 1 of a deal. There were also reports that trade talks had broken down. Equity markets were generally unphased with the varying reports and trended higher for the most part. White House Economic Advisor Kudlow propelled risk trades further with positive trade comments late Thursday. The TSX hit the 17,000 mark while the DJIA hit 28,000 – both historical highs. Confidence of an imminent trade deal also saw the CNYUSD rate trade below 7.00 for the first time in 3 months. The U.S. 10 year yield also climbed to a 3 month high at 1.95%. Oil prices also benefited from the positive market sentiment gaining 4% to the $58 level. There were OPEC reports on the probability of deeper production cuts. The OPEC secretary commented on steep supply cuts within the U.S. shale industry along with an upswing in oil demand for 2020. USDCAD generally held between 1.3114 – 1.3199 before climbing above 1.3200 on Friday, Nov. 8th after the Canadian jobs data. Headline data missed estimates with a loss of 1,800 jobs in October after having added 53,700 in September. The unemployment rate held at 5.5% - near 50 year lows while wage inflation climbed to 4.36%. USDCAD has held above 1.3200 this past week with a gradual climb to 1.3272 followed by a decline to 1.3215 on Friday. The USD saw declines late in the week after U.S. Fed Powell's speech. U.S. retail sales data was mixed while industrial production data was much weaker than expected. The USD index declined from 1 month highs towards a 1 week low while 10 year yields dropped from 3 month highs towards a 2 week low.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver November 19, 2019


U.S. China trade relations continue to dominate the economic news. Markets remain tepid this morning.

China's Global Times is out with another piece downplaying the chances of a US-China trade deal. There are no sources in the deal, instead the newspaper spoke to people who attended a US-China Entrepreneurs Roundtable."If the business roundtable was any indication, the trade negotiations still face major obstacles to reach any fair and reasonable deal," the report says.

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Daily foreign exchange rates for our top 10 currencies & Update #forex #Vancouver November 18, 2019



U.S. stocks were mixed and the dollar slid as fresh doubts about a China trade deal weighed on sentiment, highlighting the fragile nature of recent gains as negotiations drag on. The S&P 500 Index was little changed from Friday's record close amid reports that Beijing is pessimistic about the chances of reaching an accord with the U.S. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dipped while treasuries edged higher. The pound jumped as the Conservative Party maintained its poll lead less than a month before U.K. elections. Equity investors have been focused on the status of trade talks for months now, and were showing modest optimism last week after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow's comment that U.S.-China talks were nearing the final stages. But with U.S. equities near all-time highs, any piece of bad news has the potential to reverse the gains of the past few weeks. Meanwhile, the dollar extended its slide after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday to discuss the economy. Japanese and Chinese equities closed higher, while stocks slipped in India and Australia. Hong Kong's market outperformed, even as unrest in the city continued. China's yuan dipped after the country's central bank lowered borrowing costs on short-term loans for the first time since 2015 and injected $26 billion into the financial system. The moves were seen as aimed at shoring up confidence following a string of poor data in the second-biggest economy.

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The information and opinions contained herein are gathered from sources which are thought to be reliable but the reader should not assume that the information and opinions are official or final. VBCE makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of the information and opinions, and accepts no liability for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information and opinions provided. The content is for general information only and does not constitute in anyway giving financial advice.