U.S. stocks rallied the most since May and Treasuries surged as investors recalibrated their portfolios for a future without massive debt-fueled spending and a rollback of Donald Trump's signature tax cuts. The Nasdaq 100 surged more than 4% as the uncertain outcome did little to deter bulls who have already stared down a global pandemic that brought the fastest bear market on record. While the vote outcome is delayed and Trump has threatened to contest the result, traders are speculating that he won't touch off a protracted legal battle. Expectations that a Democratic sweep would usher in massive stimulus vanished, but traders piled into the megacap technology shares that are seen reaping the benefits of what growth there is, especially if the raging virus leads to additional restrictions. The benchmark S&P 500 Index rose for a third day after futures swung from losses to gains during the early U.S. morning. Prices recovered from the dive they took earlier when President Donald Trump falsely claimed victory and threatened to ask the Supreme Court to intervene in the election. With millions of votes in battleground states still being counted, and close contests in five key states, the presidential outcome may not be decided for days, or longer. It's clear that the election is turning out to be messier and more drawn-out than Wall Street had hoped.
Stocks rallied on Tuesday as a gust of optimism swept through global equity markets as millions of Americans headed to vote. Currency traders braced for increased volatility.
Treasuries fell and a gauge of the dollar dropped the most in three weeks as a risk-on mood prevailed. Oil extended gains after jumping the most in three weeks on Monday on increasing signs OPEC+ will delay a planned easing of output cuts
Stocks were slightly higher Thursday morning after the three major indices endured a deep rout a day earlier. Investors also digested a record surge in third-quarter GDP after a historic slump earlier this year, and another weekly report on jobless claims that came in better-than-expected. A slew of corporate earnings results also loom.
Yesterday, USDCAD dipped from 1.3210 down to 1.3142 before climbing back to 1.3200. The risk mood was mostly lower on the day but risk aversion flows intensified after reports that both France and Germany were looking to lockdown their respective countries for 1 month to combat the pandemic as caseloads continue to soar. USDCAD climbed towards 1.3300 this morning before retreating to 1.3273. The Bank of Canada held rates at 0.25% as expected but maintained that stimulus would be needed into 2023 while warning that Q4 growth is expected to "slow markedly." They also noted that U.S. growth "appears to be slowing considerably." USDCAD climbed to 1.3334 – near a 1 month high before falling back to 1.3300.
U.S. equities extended gains and European stocks pared their declines after strong corporate earnings and news of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s $35 billion takeover of another chipmaker. The dollar slipped. U.S. senators departed the Capitol for a pre-election break Monday, making the logistics for passing a fiscal stimulus package by next Tuesday practically impossible, even as the coronavirus continues to infect tens of thousands of Americans daily and inflict economic damage.
After closing the previous week modestly lower, the USD/CAD pair staged a rebound on Monday and touched its highest level in a week at 1.3213. As of writing, the pair was up 0.73% on the day. Falling crude oil prices makes it difficult for the commodity-related loonie to find demand. The surging number of coronavirus infections globally and recently imposed restriction measures in Europe seem to have revived concerns over an uneven recovery in energy demand. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 3.29% on a daily bas s at $38.58. On the other hand, the risk-averse market environment is helping the greenback gather strength against its peers as a safe-haven. At the moment, the US Dollar Index is gaining 0.3% on the day at 93.02. In the meantime, the S&P 500 futures are down more than 1% on the day, suggesting that the DXY could extend its daily upside if Wall Street suffers heavy losses after the opening bell.
Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3135 up to 1.3177 before falling back to 1.3123. The pairing then held near 1.3130/50 for the balance of the session. The CAD was the best performing currency while the USD was a close 2nd with the USD index effectively climbing after testing a 7 week / Sept low. The USD broadly gained heading into last night's Presidential debate taking USDCAD up to 1.3158. As the London session got underway, equity markets improved marginally, Germany posted strong manufacturing data, and the USD broadly weakened with USDCAD falling to session lows at 1.3110. The trend has changed yet again this morning with the USD broadly gaining as equities give back overnight gains. Covid cases continue to push higher with both Italy and the U.S. posting record daily cases. Also, there have been several headlines related to a U.S. economic stimulus bill over the past few weeks and it appears that time is running out for anything to pass ahead of the election. USDCAD has climbed to fresh session highs at 1.3160. Subsequent pull-backs have been limited to 1.3142 thus far.
The USD/CAD pair has managed to rebound around 35 pips from six-week lows and was last seen trading above the 1.3100 round-figure mark. The pair extended its recent pullback from the 1.3260 region and witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Wednesday. The downtick also marked the third day of a negative move in the previous four and was sponsored by the heavily offered tone surrounding the USD. The latest optimism about the next round of the US fiscal stimulus package boosted investors confidence and dented the greenback's safe-haven status. In fact, the USD Index fell to one-month lows, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor that kept exerting some pressure on the USD/CAD pair. However, a fresh leg down in crude oil prices undermined the commodity-linked currency, the loonie, and assisted the USD/CAD pair to find some support near the 1.3080 region. The pair moved back above the 1.3100 mark, though lacked any strong follow-through. Renewed lockdown measures to curb the second wave of coronavirus infections fueled fears about slower recovery in fuel demand. Adding to this, a build-up in the US inventory stoked concerns over a supply glut and exerted some downward pressure on crude oil prices through the mid-European session. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, either from the US or Canada, the USD/oil price dynamics might continue to play a key role in influencing the USD/CAD pair. Hence, the key focus will be on development surrounding the US fiscal stimulus measures and coronavirus saga.
Global stock markets were subdued on Tuesday as hopes faded that the U.S. will come through with badly needed aid for the economy before the presidential election.
U.S. shares have recovered only part of Monday's losses, with Dow and S&P 500 both up 0.6%.
In Europe, France's CAC 40 gained 02% to 4,952, while Germany's DAX slipped 0.4% to 12,801. Britain's FTSE 100 edged up 0.2% to 5,894. Rising coronavirus caseloads are dragging on sentiment as investors consider the likelihood of further business shutdown
Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3145 up to 1.3259 – a 1 week high amidst general negative market risk sentiment, weaker oil prices, and a broadly stronger USD. NA equity markets recouped the bulk of their losses sending USDCAD back down towards 1.3215. Overnight, equities turned positive for the first time in 4 days with European bourses leading the way with near 2% gains. U.S. markets are following with strong gains early on. Currencies remain confined to relatively narrow ranges with the broad USD index holding near 2 week highs. USDCAD climbed to 1.3237 overnight but has since retreated to 1.3191. A rally higher stalled at 1.3218 and USDCAD is back down testing session lows.
Wall Street was poised for a rough session Thursday, as investors considered fast-dimming prospects for fiscal stimulus before the U.S. election and a host of new virus-related restrictions in Europe.
Traders continue to fixate on whether a stimulus deal of any size will transpire within the next three weeks, even as recent comments from lawmakers have overwhelmingly dampened hopes.
Stocks fluctuated as traders parsed results from big banks amid dwindling prospects for a pre-election stimulus deal. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said a surge in U.S. coronavirus cases to about 50,000 a day has added uncertainty to the outlook and may discourage businesses from hiring or investing. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have dug into their opposing stances on a pandemic relief, effectively killing off chances for a deal before the Nov. 3 election. With Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin headed to the Middle East next week, further negotiations to reach a deal may be put off. With the understanding that stimulus won't occur before the election, the market continues to grapple with the potential political outcomes. Earnings season continues to come into focus but it's been rather tough to draw inspiration from what have generally been noisy/messy figures from mostly financial services firms and banks that have reported thus far.
Yesterday, USDCAD eased lower from 1.3265 down to 1.3190 amidst general positive market risk sentiment, higher oil prices, and a broadly weaker USD. The trend continues today as the market remains hopeful for a U.S. stimulus package. Since Trump's comments on Tuesday about no further negotiations on a stimulus package until after the election sank the DJIA by 500 pts and propelled USDCAD up to 1.3340, there has been a change in tune with stimulus talks back on the table. Overnight, USDCAD dipped to 1.3160 before climbing to 1.3180 ahead of the Canadian jobs report. The September report was surprisingly strong more than doubling market expectations. Also, the majority of the jobs added were full time jobs (334,000). USDCAD dropped accordingly to 1.3133 before climbing back to 1.3158. A second run lower has again stalled at 1.3133 – near 1 month lows.
Stock advanced Thursday morning, after the three major indices closed at their highest levels in more than one month a day earlier, and investors digested a new round of jobless claims that were higher than expected.
Traders clung to hope that some aid out of Washington – if not a multi-trillion dollar, comprehensive virus relief package – might transpire in the near-term.
After climbing to a fresh weekly high of 1.3341 in the early trading hours of the European session, the USD/CAD pair lost its traction amid renewed USD weakness and rising crude oil prices. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3280, losing 0.3% on a daily basis. The broad-based USD strength after US President Donald Trump's decision to halt stimulus talks until after the election caused the pair to turn north late on Tuesday. However, with the market sentiment improving on hopes President Trump sending stimulus checks to American families and providing aid to airlines, the greenback started to weaken against its rivals. At the moment, the USD Dollar Index, which touched a daily high of 93.90 earlier in the day, is down 0.28% on the day at 93.59. Meanwhile, investors will be keeping a close on Wall Street's performance. A negative shift in risk sentiment could provide a boost to the USD and cause USD/CAD to turn north in the second half of the day.
Stocks traded flat Tuesday morning, as investors digested a number of developments around President Donald Trump's health and considered a moving target of possible election outcomes and prospects for further fiscal stimulus.
The S&P 500 hugged the flat line, after the blue-chip index closed at its highest level in nearly one month during the regular session on Monday. The energy sector led the advance as a risk-on mood sent crude oil prices sharply higher.
U.S. equities followed global stocks higher on optimism over economic stimulus and that President Donald Trump may soon leave the hospital. Treasury yields rose and the dollar weakened. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average all rebounded from Friday's swoon in the wake of Trump's coronavirus disclosure. Fiscal stimulus continues to be a wild card for the market, and uncertainty around the health of the president certainly looms large. So while there's a lot of noise out there, experienced traders may find bullish opportunities. Consumer companies and banks led a broad advance among European stocks. Equities in Asia notched gains, while crude oil rebounded from a three-week low. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said a decision on Trump's release from the hospital will be made after consultations with medical staff Monday morning. But Trump's condition remains clouded by confusion, with the president's effort to show strength contradicted by conflicting accounts from his doctors. On the stimulus front, Trump tweeted from the hospital that a deal needs to get done. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was optimistic on Friday that a bipartisan stimulus bill can be done, and said his diagnosis "kind of changes the dynamic." Elsewhere in markets, the Taiwan dollar closed at the strongest level since 2011 amid speculation the local central bank will loosen its grip on the rallying currency.
Yesterday, USDCAD initially dropped from 1.3322 down to 1.3280 before briefly climbing to 1.3315. The rate then declined to 1.3267 – near a two week low before holding near 1.3290 for the balance of the session. During the Asian session, it was reported that both President Trump and his wife had tested positive for covid-19. Risk aversion flows ensued sending the USD and JPY broadly higher while U.S. equity indices declined by 2%. USDCAD climbed to 1.3329 before retracing back to 1.3293 ahead of the U.S employment report. The results were mixed – the jobs added missed estimates but prior data was revised higher. The unemployment rate dropped sharply from last month although that was a direct result of fewer people looking for work (lower participation rate). The initial reaction was a stronger USD sending USDCAD up to 1.3331. The move was short-lived as U.S. equities rebounded sharply erasing the bulk of overnight losses. USDCAD dropped to 1.3302 before climbing back to 1.3318. The CAD is holding up quite well given that oil prices are down sharply today trading near 4 month lows.
Stocks moved higher Thursday morning heading into the first session of October and the fourth quarter, supported by expectations that Washington could provide more stimulus money for a recovery that may be losing momentum. Oil dropped and precious metals moved higher.
The USD/CAD pair came under heavy bearish pressure during the American trading hours on Wednesday and touched a fresh weekly low of 1.3317. As of writing, the pair was down 0.40% on a daily basis at 1.3325. A new USD-selling wave hit the markets in the last hour. The fact that there were no clear catalysts behind the USD weakness suggests that month-end flows came into play toward the end of London trading. Meanwhile, the upbeat market mood, as reflected by the strong gains witnessed in Wall Street's main indexes, is helping risk-sensitive crude oil prices traction. With the barrel of West Texas Intermediate rising nearly 1.5% at $39.65, the commodity-related loonie is preserving its strength against its rivals. Earlier in the day, the data published by Statistics Canada showed that the Canadian economy expanded by 3% on a monthly basis in July as expected. On the other hand, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis third estimate revealed that the real GDP in the second quarter contracted by 31.4%. Moreover, the ADP reported that private sector employment in September rose by 749,000, compared to analysts' estimate of 650,000.