Daily Foreign Exchange Update
June 13, 2025
Spot Rates
- USDCAD spot rate: 1.3592 - 1.3597 (as at 7:29am PST)
- Asia: 1.3592 to 1.3645
- Europe: 1.3613 To 1.3652
- North America: 1.3600 to 1.3635
Technical Support / Resistance:
- S2 1.3550
- S1 1.3592
- R1 1.3650
- R2 1.3700
Key Economic Data Releases:
- U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment index: 60.5 exp 53.5 prev 52.2
- U.S. Michigan consumer expectations index: 58.4 prev 47.9
- U.S. UoM 1 year consumer inflation expectations: 5.1% prev 6.6% 5 year: 4.1% prev 4.2%
Important Events We're Watching This Week
- June 16, Canada, Housing starts
- June 16, USA, NY Empire state manufacturing index
- June 17, Canada, Int’l securities transactions
- June 17, USA, Retail sales, industrial production
- June 18, USA, Fed interest rate / economic projections
- June 19, USA, Juneteenth
- June 20, Canada, Retail sales
- June 20, USA, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey
Market Spotlight Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.3675 down to 1.3600 – fresh 8 month lows and held near the lows for the balance of the session. The USD trade-weighted index fell as much as 1% towards fresh 3.5 year lows (lowest since February 2022). Equity markets were largely positive while U.S. 10 year yields dropped towards 6 week lows after another round of soft U.S. economic data. Overnight, the USD broadly gained after Israel launched major airstrikes on Iran sending oil prices up as much as 12% towards a 1 year high. Iran also backed out of nuclear talks with the U.S. staged for Sunday. After briefly falling to 1.3592 – the lowest level since early October, USDCAD climbed to test 1.3650 in early London trade and again in late London trade. The pairing has since fallen back to re-test the Asia-Pacific lows. The USD trade-weighted index has rebounded by 0.50% from yesterday 3 year+ lows. U.S. Fed rate cut expectations have increased slightly this week after several weaker than expected inflation and employment related data. The market is now pricing in a 40.1% chance of two interest rate cuts (taking the rate down to 4%) and a 25.2% chance of three rate cut to 3.75%. The Bank of Canada held its key rate @ 2.75% earlier this month. Market pricing assumes a year end Bank of Canada rate of 2.25% although the chance of a July rate cut has diminished sharply after a string of better than expected data.
- Currently, the TSX is down 0.45% - still near all-time highs while the DJIA is 1.50% near 2 week lows. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are down 1% and 1.15% respectively – still near 4 month highs.
- EURCAD is down 0.45% trading between 1.5671 and 1.5789 – near 2 month highs.
- GBPCAD is down 0.47% trading between 1.8413 and 1.8532 – near 1 month lows.
- JPYCAD is down 0.41% trading between 0.00943 and 0.00954 – near 4 month lows.
- Gold is up 1.75% trading between $3,391 - $3,447USD/oz – near record highs.
- Silver is up 0.28% trading between $35.97 - $36.64USD/oz.
- Oil (WTI crude) is up 7.66% trading between $69.14 and $77.62 – near 1 year highs