Daily Foreign Exchange Update
August 1, 2025
Spot Rates
- USDCAD spot rate: 1.3782 - 1.3787 (as at 8:11am PST)
- Asia: 1.3845 to 1.3868
- Europe: 1.3850 To 1.3879
- North America: 1.3763 to 1.3874
Technical Support / Resistance:
- S2 1.3720
- S1 1.3760
- R1 1.3800
- R2 1.3870
Key Economic Data Releases:
- U.S. non-farm payrolls: 73,000 exp 110,000 prev 14,000 * revised from 147,000
- U.S. unemployment rate: 4.2% exp 4.2% prev 4.1%
- U.S. U6 underemployment rate: 7.9% prev 7.7%
- U.S. average hourly earnings m/m: 0.3% exp 0.3% prev 0.2% y/y: 3.9% exp 3.8% prev 3.8%
- Canada S&P global manufacturing PMI: 46.1 prev 45.6
- U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI: 48 exp 49.5 prev 49
- U.S. ISM manufacturing employment index: 43.4 prev 45
- U.S. ISM manufacturing prices paid: 64.8 exp 70 prev 69.7
- UoM 1 year consumer inflation expectations: 4.5% prev 4.4% 5 year: 3.4% exp 3.6% prev 3.6%
Important Events We're Watching This Week
- Aug 4, Canada, Civic Holiday
- Aug 5, USA, ISM services PMI
- Aug 7, Canada, Ivey PMI
- Aug 7, USA, Jobless claims
- Aug 8, Canada, Net change in employment
- Aug 8, USA, UoM consumer inflation expectations
Market Spotlight Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3815 up to 1.3853 (2 month high) before falling back to 1.3820. The USD trade-weighted index climbed 0.5% to 100.00 – its highest level since late May. Overnight, USDCAD briefly extended up to 1.3879 after Trump announced a 35% tariff rate on Canadian imports not covered by the USMCA trade agreement. U.S. employment data was weaker than expected including a significant downward revision (-133,000) to June data. The USD index dropped 1.50% to a 4 day low taking USDCAD down to 1.3763 – near 4 day lows as well. The pairing has since rallied to 1.3790. U.S. Fed rate cut expectations have increased after today’s poor employment report. Trump is again calling for the Fed to lower interest rates after the Fed held its key rate at 4.50% this week (only 2 dissenters). Over the next 12 months, the market is pricing in a 28.4% chance of four interest rate cuts taking the rate down to 3.50%, a 27.3% chance of five rate cuts (3.25%), and a 15% chance of six rate cuts (3.00%). The Bank of Canada held its key rate @ 2.75% this week noting that “the impact (of the trade war) so far has been less severe than originally feared.” Market pricing assumes a year end Bank of Canada rate of 2.25%.
- Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are down about 1% trading near 1 month lows. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are down 1.40% and 1.70% respectively – also near 1 month lows.
- EURCAD has rebounded from near 6 week lows - up 0.80% trading between 1.5804 and 1.5953.
- GBPCAD is unchanged trading between 1.8232 and 1.8361 – near 4 month lows.
- JPYCAD has rebounded from 7 month lows - up 1.27% trading between 0.00917 and 0.00932.
- Gold has rebounded from 2 month lows – up 1.75% trading between $3,281 - $3,355USD/oz – back near record highs.
- Silver has also rebounded from 2 month lows - up 0.60% trading between $36.35 - $37.18USD/oz.
- Oil (WTI crude) has fallen from near 5 week highs - down 3% trading between $67.63 and $69.57