Daily Foreign Exchange Update

December 3, 2025

Spot Rates Asia: 1.3962 to 1.3975 Europe: 1.3938 To 1.3971 North America: 1.3942 to 1.3969

Technical Support / Resistance:

• S2 1.3888
• S1 1.3930
• R1 1.4000
• R2 1.4050

Key Economic Data Releases: U.S. ISM services PMI: 52.6 exp 52.1 prev 52.4

Important Events We're Watching This Week

• Dec 4, Canada, Ivey PMI
• Dec 4, USA, Challenger job cuts, initial jobless claims
• Dec 5, Canada, Net employment change, unemployment %, avg hourly wages
• Dec 5, USA, Core PCE price index, personal income / spending, consumer sentiment index

Market Spotlight The CAD strengthens against the USD on Wednesday as the Greenback remains under broad pressure amid a firmly dovish Fed outlook. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.3950, edging close to one-month lows as bearish momentum builds. Adding to the Dollar’s decline, the latest ADP National Employment Report underscored renewed weakness in the US labour market. Private-sector employment fell by 32,000 in November, sharply missing expectations for a 5,000 increase, while October’s figure was revised up to a 47,000 gain from 42,000 previously. This dataset comes at a critical time for policymakers, with the November and October Nonfarm Payrolls reports to be released together on December 16. The soft labour print pushed the DXY lower to around 98.96, near a one-month low and down roughly 0.40% on the day. Markets see the data as strengthening the case for the Fed to lower interest rates at next week’s meeting, in line with recent dovish-leaning remarks from several policymakers who have acknowledged slowing labour momentum. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in about an 88% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the December 9-10 monetary policy meeting. On the Canadian side, the domestic calendar remains light, though the latest Q3 Labour Productivity figures offered a mildly supportive signal for the CAD. Productivity rose 0.9% QoQ, improving from the -1.0% contraction in the previous quarter and beating the 0.4% forecast. Attention now turns to Friday’s labour market release, which will be crucial ahead of the Bank of Canada’s December 10 interest rate decision.