Daily Foreign Exchange Update
November 3, 2025
Spot Rates
- USDCAD spot rate: 1.4050 - 1.4055 (as at 8:55am PST)
- Asia: 1.4008 to 1.4023
- Europe: 1.4018 To 1.4062
- North America: 1.4054 to 1.4076
Technical Support / Resistance:
- S2 1.3950
- S1 1.4000
- R1 1.4100
- R2 1.4150
Key Economic Data Releases:
- Canada S&P global mfg PMI: 49.6 exp 49.6
- U.S. S&P: global mfg PMI: 52.5 exp 52.2
- U.S. ISM mfg PMI: 58 exp 49.5 prev 49.1
Important Events We're Watching This Week
- Nov 4, USA, JOLTS job openings
- Nov 5, USA, ADP employment, S&P global/ ISM services PMI
- Nov 6, Canada, Ivey PMI
- Nov 6, USA, Challenger job cuts, jobless claims
- Nov 7, Canada, Net change in employment, unemployment rate, avg hourly wages
- Nov 7, USA, Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, U6 underemployment rate, avg hourly earnings
Market Spotlight USD/CAD edges higher on Monday, up 0.40% for the day at 1.4045 at the time of writing, but its bullish momentum appears to be fading below the 1.4050 level. The CAD struggles to recover, weighed down by falling Crude Oil prices, while the USD benefits from a shift in market expectations after the Fed signaled a more cautious stance on further policy easing in December. During the press conference following last week’s monetary policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that another interest rate cut this year was “far from certain”, emphasizing that policymakers needed to wait until official data releases resume amid the ongoing US government shutdown. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chances of a 25-basis-point cut in December have fallen to about 69%, down from over 90% before the meeting. This more hawkish tone from the Fed supports the USD and dampens risk appetite, especially as the US government shutdown extends into its sixth week with no resolution in sight. The prolonged fiscal impasse continues to weigh on confidence in the U.S., limiting investors’ appetite for commodity-linked currencies such as the Loonie. At the same time, falling Oil prices are adding pressure on the Canadian currency. WTI US Oil retreated toward $60.50 but has since then risen above $61.00, hurt by the strengthening USD despite OPEC+ announcing a pause in production hikes starting in the first quarter of 2026. This decline in Oil, Canada’s main export, further undermines the CAD’s outlook. On the Canadian side, Commerzbank notes that recent trade tensions between Ottawa and Washington continue to weigh on sentiment. According to FX analyst Michael Pfister, “a sustainable appreciation of the CAD is still some time away,” as economic risks continue to outweigh opportunities in the current environment.
- Currently, the TSX is down 0.45% and the DJIA is down 0.29%.
- EURCAD is up 0.26% trading between 1.6136 and 1.6214.
- GBPCAD is up 0.32% trading between 1.8375 and 1.8494.
- JPYCAD is up 0.26% trading between 0.00908 and 0.00913.
- Gold is up 0.12% trading between $3,962 - $4,030USD/oz.
- Silver is down 0.39% trading between $47.81 - $49.10USD/oz.
- Oil (WTI crude) is up 0.68% trading between $60.52 and $61.49.