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Daily Foreign Exchange Update for August 28, 2026

August 28, 2026

Spot Rates:

  • USDCAD spot rate: 1.3890 - 1.3895 (as at 7:29am PST)
  • Asia: 1.3847 to 1.3857
  • Europe: 1.3842 To 1.3859
  • North America: 1.3847 to 1.3897

Technical Support / Resistance:

  • S2 1.3800
  • S1 1.3840
  • R1 1.3900
  • R2 1.3960

Key Economic Data Releases:

  • Canada GDP (June) 0.3% exp 0.2% prev 0.3% QoQ Q2: 0.8% prev 0.1%
  • Canada GDP annualized Q2: 3.3% exp 3.4% prev 0.3% *revised from -0.1%
  • Canada GDP – July estimate: 0%
  • U.S. non-farm payrolls benchmark revision: -79,000
  • U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment index: 51.7 exp 51 prev 51
  • UoM consumer inflation expectations 1 year: 4% exp 4.3% prev 4.3% 5 year: 3.3% exp 3.3% prev 3.3%

Important events we're watching next week:

  • Aug 31, USA, Chicago PMI
  • Sept 1, Canada, S&P global manufacturing PMI
  • Sept 1, USA, ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings
  • Sept 2, Canada, Bank of Canada interest rate
  • Sept 2, USA, ADP employment change
  • Sept 3, USA, Challenger job cuts, ISM services PMI
  • Sept 4, Canada, Net change in employment
  • Sept 4, USA, Non-farm payrolls

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3876 up to 1.3891 – just shy of Wednesday’s near 2 week high @ 1.3893 before falling back towards 1.3850. The USD trade-weighted index was flat holding near 1 week highs.

Overnight, USDCAD dipped to 1.3842 ahead of the Canadian GDP data release. The results were largely as expected with a noticeable upward revision to prior data. However, the July estimate looks weak @ 0%. The USD is broadly stronger this morning after some hawkish comments from U.S. Fed Chairman Warsh. September rate hike probabilities have jumped from 33% up to 57% while the USD trade-weighted index is up 0.4% towards 2 week highs. USDCAD briefly eclipsed the weekly high albeit by a few basis points to 1.3897. The pairing has since drifted back towards 1.3880.

Last month, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25%. Market pricing indicates two or three rate hikes to 2.75%/3.00% by the end of 2027. Also last month, the U.S. Fed held its key rate @ 3.75%. After today’s Fed comments, markets are pricing in an extra rate hike. Looking out to September 2027, the market is pricing in a 34.1% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%. There is a 23.7% chance of three rate hikes to 4.50%, and a 24.4% chance of just one rate hike to 4.00%.

  • Currently, the TSX is down 0.30% while the DJIA is up 0.31%. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ are both up 0.33%. All indices have rebounded sharply this month and are near all-time highs.
  • EURCAD is down 0.17% trading between 1.6105 and 1.6143 – near 3 week highs.
  • GBPCAD is down 0.13% trading between 1.8789 and 1.8833 – near 1 week lows.
  • JPYCAD is unchanged trading between 0.00866 and 0.00869 – near 33 year lows from near 8 month highs in early August.
  • Gold is down 0.88% trading between $4,529 - $4,631USD/oz – near 4 month highs.
  • Silver is flat trading between $68.19 - $71.16USD/oz – near 3 month highs.
  • Oil (WTI crude) is down 0.71% trading between $82.27 and $83.58 – near 1 month highs.