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Daily Foreign Exchange Update for Friday, May 22, 2026

May 22, 2026

Spot Rates

  • USDCAD: 1.3795 - 1.3800 (as at 6:55am PST)
  • Asia: 1.3776 to 1.3793
  • Europe: 1.3784 to 1.3802
  • North America: 1.3790 to 1.3807

Technical Support / Resistance

  • S2 1.3700
  • S1 1.3750
  • R1 1.3800
  • R2 1.3840

Key Economic Data Releases:

  • Canada retail sales (Mar): 0.9% exp 0.6% prev 0.7% ex autos: 1.4% exp 0.9% prev 0.6%
  • Canada retail sales – Advance estimate April: 0.6%
  • U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment index: 44.8 exp 48.2 prev 48.2
  • U.S. UoM consumer inflation expectations 1 year: 4.8% exp 4.5% prev 4.5% 5 year: 3.9% exp 3.4% prev 3.4%

Important events we're watching next week:

  • May 25, USA, Memorial Day
  • May 26, USA, Housing price index
  • May 27, USA, ADP employment change
  • May 28, USA, Core PCE price index, durable goods orders
  • May 29, Canada, GDP (Mar), Q1 annualized
  • May 29, USA, Chicago PMI

Market Spotlilght

Yesterday, USDCAD climbed from 1.3745 up to 1.3800 – its highest level since April 13th. The pairing eased back to hold within a 1.3768 – 1.3783 range for the balance of the session. USD trade-weighted index climbed to its highest level since April 7th. The index has gained 2% over the past 2 weeks since falling towards 3 month lows.

Overnight, USDCAD held an uneventful 1.3776 – 1.3802 range. The entire trading range this week has been confined within a 1.3730 – 1.3800 range. Canadian retail sales data was stronger than expected while U.S. consumer sentiment declined for the 3rd consecutive month. USDCAD is little changed on the session holding near the 1.3800 level.

At the end of April, the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25% and 3.75% respectively. Looking out to June 2027, the market is pricing in a 22.5% chance of no Fed interest rate cuts and a 37.4% chance of one rate hike to 4.00%. There is a 26.8% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%. Market pricing continues to indicate nearly two rate hikes by year-end in Canada.

  • Currently, the TSX and the DJIA are up 0.35% and 0.63% – near historical highs.
  • The S&P500 and NASDAQ are up 0.38% and 0.23% respectively – also near historic highs.
  • EURCAD is unchanged trading between 1.5989 and 1.6025 – near 1 week highs.
  • GBPCAD is up 0.22% trading between 1.8500 and 1.8567 – near a 10 day high.
  • JPYCAD is flat trading between 0.00865 and 0.00867 – near 33 year lows.
  • Gold is down 0.77% trading between $4,507 - $4,541USD/oz – near 2 month lows.
  • Silver is down 1.25% trading between $75.41 - $77.04USD/oz – near 2 month lows.
  • Oil (WTI crude) is up 1.53% trading between $95.82 and $99.42 – near 2 week lows.