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Daily Foreign Exchange Update for November 4

November 4, 2026

Spot Rates:
  • USDCAD spot rate: 1.3955-1.3960 (as at 8:15 am PST)
  • Asia: 1.3929 to 1.4010
  • Europe: 1.3941 To 1.4005
  • North America: 1.3925 to 1.3960
Technical Support / Resistance:
  • S2 1.3880
  • S1 1.3925
  • R1 1.3985
  • R2 1.4010
Key Economic Data Releases:
  • ADP Employment Change (Oct) – 86K Actual (vs 69K forecast)
  • CAD Trade Balance (Sep)
Important events we're watching this week:
  • Nov 4, USA, ADP employment change, ISM services PMI
  • Nov 5, USA, Challenger job cuts
  • Nov 6, Canada, Net change in employment
  • Nov 6, USA, Non-farm payrolls, UoM consumer inflation expectations
Market Spotlight

USDCAD is trading with a firmer tone this Wednesday morning as markets digest the results of yesterday’s U.S. midterm elections and trading at 1.3960 as of 8:15AM PST, where Democrats won control of both the House and Senate in a decisive rebuke of the Trump administration. The Democratic sweep has weighed on the USD overnight - historically a divided or flipped Congress reduces the administration’s ability to push through fiscal spending and tariff policy, which is broadly USD-negative and supportive of risk assets and commodity currencies like CAD.

Global Equities are firmer this morning on the reduced tariff risk. That said, strong U.S. economic data is providing a floor for the dollar: October ADP payrolls came in at 86K - well above the 69K forecast. USDCAD rallied from an overnight low near 1.3925 to a session high of 1.4010 before easing back to current levels near 1.3955 as the initial post-election USD selloff stabilized.

On the Canadian side, September Trade Balance printed a surplus of $5.35B, a constructive read for CAD. WTI Crude is under pressure, down 3.38% near $94, a mild headwind for CAD. The key pending catalysts today are the ISM Services PMI and EIA Crude Oil Stocks.

Looking ahead: Thursday November 5 brings the BoE rate decision at 5:00am PST (hold expected at 4%), U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and November 5th brings job data from both sides of the border.

  • Currently, the TSX is up 56.13 points.
  • EURCAD is trading between 1.5698 and 1.5718.
  • GBPCAD is trading between 1.8788 and 1.8829.
  • JPYCAD is trading between 0.8796 and 0.8806.
  • Gold is down 0.60% trading between $3,919 - $4,052 USD/oz.
  • Silver is trading near $52.19 USD/oz.
  • Oil (Brent crude) is down 3.38% trading near $100.82 USD/bbl.