Daily Foreign Exchange Update for November 6

November 6, 2026

Spot Rates

USDCAD spot rate: 1.4095 - 1.4100 (as at 8:05am PST)
Asia: 1.4011 to 1.4045
Europe: 1.4038 To 1.4080
North America: 1.5050 to 1.4126

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2 1.4000
S1 1.4060
R1 1.4120
R2 1.4180

Key Economic Data Releases:

Canada net change in employment (Oct): -4,700 exp 13,600 prev -68,300
Canada unemployment rate: 6.7% exp 6.5% prev 6.5%
Canada avg hourly wages y/y: 2% prev 2.3%
U.S. nonfarm payrolls: 165,000 exp 65,000 prev 60,000 *revised from 29,000
U.S. unemployment rate: 4.1% exp 4.2% prev 4.2%
U.S. avg hourly earnings m/m: 0.4% exp 0.3% prev 0.3% *rev from 0.1% y/y:3.1% exp 2.9% prev 3.2% *rev from 3%

Important events we're watching next week:

Nov 10, USA, CPI
Nov 11, Canada, Remembrance Day
Nov 11, USA, Veterans Day
Nov 12, USA, Jobless claims | Producer price index

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.3980 down to 1.3942 before climbing to 1.4024 (highest since Oct. 28th) late in the NA session. On Wednesday, the pairing had fallen from 1.4015 down to 1.3929 (7 week lows) after the Democrats’ sweep in the U.S. Midterms broadly weakened the USD (USD index dropped 0.75% to a 5 week low).

Overnight, USDCAD climbed to 1.4080 and extended up to 1.4126 (highest since October 19) this morning after U.S. jobs beat estimates including positive revisions. Canadian jobs numbers fell short of estimates. Although U.S. 10 year treasury yields have fallen back towards 2 month lows near 4.81% and U.S. rate expectations have been pulled back this week, the USD index is broadly stronger – up 0.68% towards 1 week highs this morning.

Last week, the BOC hiked its key interest rate by 25bp to 2.50% - a move that was widely expected by markets. Market pricing indicates another one or two rate hikes to 2.75%/3.00% by the end of 2027. Also last week, the U.S. Fed held its key rate at 4.00%. Looking out to December 2027, the market is pricing in a 36.2% chance of two rate hikes to 4.50%. There is a 31% chance of just one rate hike to 4.25%, and an 18.5% chance of three rate hikes to 4.75%.

Currently, the TSX is flat while the DJIA is down 1%. The S&P500 and the NASDAQ have rebounded from near 7 month lows - up 0.32% and 1.25% respectively.
EURCAD is flat trading between 1.5675 and 1.5744 – near 2 week highs from near 17 month lows in late October.
GBPCAD is flat trading between 1.8787 and 1.8867 – near 3 week highs from near 5 month lows in late October.
JPYCAD has rebounded from 2 month lows - is up 0.27% trading between 0.00887 and 0.00891.
Gold is down 1.28% from near 2 week highs trading between $4,025 - $4,106USD/oz.
Silver is down 0.31% trading between $51.18 - $52.37USD/oz – near 1 year lows.
Oil (WTI crude) is up 0.20% trading between $89.10 and $92.49 – near 2 month lows.
Oil has fallen 15% after trading near 6 month highs last week.