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Daily Foreign Exchange Update for September 1, 2026

September 1, 2026

Spot Rates:

  • USDCAD spot rate: 1.3890 - 1.3895 (as at 7:40am PST)
  • Asia: 1.3844 to 1.3863
  • Europe: 1.3860 To 1.3877
  • North America: 1.3875 to 1.3895

Technical Support / Resistance:

  • S2 1.3800
  • S1 1.3840
  • R1 1.3900
  • R2 1.3960

Key Economic Data Releases:

  • S&P Global Mfg PMI: 53.00 (prev 53.5)
  • US PMI: 53.9 (prev 53.2)
  • US JOLTS: 7.21m (exp 7.3m)

Important events we're watching this week:

  • Sept 1, Canada, Bank of Canada interest rate
  • Sept 1, USA, ADP employment change
  • Sept 2, USA, Challenger job cuts, ISM services PMI
  • Sept 3, Canada, Net change in employment
  • Sept 3, USA, Non-farm payrolls

Market Spotlight

USDCAD has gained half a cent overnight and is approaching 1.3900 again. The main event this week lands tomorrow, when the Bank of Canada announces its next rate decision. Expectations are one-sided: futures markets price roughly 99% odds of a seventh straight hold at 2.25%, and all 35 economists in a recent Reuters poll agree. The case for patience is real, Canada's economy grew at its strongest pace in nearly two years last quarter on an auto-production rebound, while headline inflation has ticked up to 3% on higher energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict, leaving the Bank boxed in between decent growth and sticky inflation. A minority of bank economists, notably at National Bank and Scotiabank, are leaning toward hikes later this fall, so Wednesday's language will matter as much as the decision itself.

The other cross-current is a firmer U.S. dollar. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech last Friday struck a more hawkish tone than expected, pushing the U.S. dollar index to a two-week high and lifting the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since early last year, as traders now price real odds of a Fed hike this month. A Fed hike paired with a BoC hold would widen the rate gap between the two countries, a fresh headwind for the loonie on top of Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., set to take effect September 8.

Elsewhere, the yen breached the closely watched 160-per-dollar level yesterday, putting traders on alert for fresh intervention from Japanese authorities, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly said he expects a Bank of Japan rate hike this month. It's a reminder that broader dollar strength and volatility in pairs like USD/JPY are part of the same global rates story pressuring the loonie right now.

  • Currently, the TSX is down 0.50% while the DJIA is down 0.70%.
  • EURCAD is up 0.13% trading between 1.6075 and 1.6121.
  • GBPCAD is up 0.22% trading between 1.8763 and 1.8818.
  • JPYCAD is up 0.15% trading between 0.00866 and 0.00868.
  • Gold is down 1.85% trading between $4,326 - $4,461USD/oz.
  • Silver is down 2.51% trading between $64.27 - $67.07USD/oz.
  • Oil (WTI crude) is up 1.80% trading between $86.70 and $89.11..