Daily Foreign Exchange Update for September 3, 2026

September 3, 2026

Spot Rates:

USDCAD spot rate: 1.3790 - 1.3795 (as at 7:52am PST)
Asia: 1.3827 to 1.3848
Europe: 1.3790 To 1.3837
North America: 1.3790 to 1.3806

Technical Support / Resistance:

S2 1.3700
S1 1.3750
R1 1.3840
R2 1.3900

Key Economic Data Releases:

U.S. Challenger job cuts: 52,881 prev 33,429
U.S. initial jobless claims: 206,000 exp 205,000 prev 204,000
U.S. ISM services PMI: 55.4 exp 54.3 prev 54.1
U.S. ISM services employment index: 47.8 exp prev 47.4
U.S. ISM services prices paid: 72.6 prev 70.3

Important events we're watching this week:

Sept 4, Canada, Net change in employment
Sept 4, USA, Non-farm payrolls

Important events we're watching next week:

Sept 8, USA, ADP employment change 4 week avg
Sept 10, USA, Producer price index, jobless claims
Sept 11, USA, CPI, consumer sentiment index / inflation expectations

Market Spotlight:

Yesterday, USDCAD briefly broke above the 1.3900 level and extended up to 1.3940 – a 1 month high. The trend quickly reversed after the Bank of Canada held its key interest rate @ 2.25% but offered up a more “hawkish” statement. USDCAD dropped to 1.3837 – within 1 cent of the August lows @ 1.3732. The USD trade-weighted index dropped nearly 0.5% while the EURCAD and GBPCAD rates dropped sharply toward 3 month lows.

Overnight, broad-based USD weakness has continued with the USD index down 0.50% on the day and back near 1 week lows. USDCAD has fallen to 1.3790 – near 4 month lows. The JPY is up sharply – back near the early August intervention highs with the USD selling spreading to other pairings this morning as U.S. yields fall from their near 25 year highs.

Last month, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25%. Market pricing indicates two or three rate hikes to 2.75%/3.00% by the end of 2027. Also last month, the U.S. Fed held its key rate @ 3.75%. After last Friday’s Fed comments, markets are pricing in an extra rate hike. Looking out to September 2027, the market is pricing in a 32.2% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%. There is a 26.5% chance of three rate hikes to 4.50%, and a 20.2% chance of just one rate hike to 4.00%.

Currently, the TSX is up 0.70%. The DJIA, S&P500, and the NASDAQ are up 0.60%, 0.50%, and 0.85% respectively. All indices have rebounded sharply over the past month and are near all-time highs.
EURCAD is flat trading between 1.6011 and 1.6054 – near 3 month lows.
GBPCAD is down 0.15% trading between 1.8604 and 1.8667 – near 3 month lows.
JPYCAD is up 1.70% trading between 0.00870 and 0.00888 – near 9 month highs.
Gold is up 2% trading between $4,382 - $4,495USD/oz – near 4 month highs.
Silver is up 1.85% trading between $65.21 - $66.79USD/oz.
Oil (WTI crude) is up 1.70% trading between $89.58 and $93.12 – near 3 month highs.