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Daily Foreign Exchange Update for September 4, 2026

September 4, 2026

Spot Rates:

  • USDCAD spot rate: 1.3840 - 1.3845 (as at 8:13am PST)
  • Asia: 1.3784 to 1.3797
  • Europe: 1.3788 To 1.3808
  • North America: 1.3790 to 1.3872

Technical Support / Resistance:

  • S2 1.3700
  • S1 1.3750
  • R1 1.3860
  • R2 1.3900

Key Economic Data Releases:

  • Canada net change in employment: -41,700 exp 15,000 prev 75,100
  • Canada unemployment rate: 6.4% exp 6.4% prev 6.4%
  • Canada average hourly wages y/y: 2% exp 3% prev 3%
  • U.S. non-farm payrolls: 162,000 exp 56,000 prev 21,000 *revised from -23,000
  • U.S. unemployment rate: 4.1% exp 4.1% prev 4.1%
  • U.S. avg hourly wages m/m: 0.3% exp 0.3% prev 0.2% y/y: 3.1% exp 3% prev 3.2%

Important events we're watching next week:

  • Sept 8, USA, ADP employment change 4 week avg
  • Sept 10, USA, Producer price index, jobless claims
  • Sept 11, USA, CPI, consumer sentiment index / inflation expectations

Market Spotlight

Yesterday, USDCAD dropped from 1.3845 down to 1.3767 before rebounding to 1.3795. USDCAD came close to testing 4 month lows / August lows @ 1.3732. The USD trade-weighted index dropped 0.75% towards 1 week lows after falling 0.50% on Wednesday.

Overnight, USDCAD held within a 1.3784 – 1.3808 range before spiking to 1.3872 after the combination of a stronger than expected U.S. jobs report / weaker than expected Canadian jobs report. The USD index jumped 0.35% after heavy losses the past two days but has since halved its gains. USDCAD has also drifted back towards the 1.3840 level. Over the previous 3 months Canada had consistently outperformed the U.S. - averaging 60,000 job gains / month vs only 20,000 / month south of the border.

Last month, the Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.25%. Market pricing indicates two or three rate hikes to 2.75%/3.00% by the end of 2027. Also last month, the U.S. Fed held its key rate @ 3.75%. After last Friday’s Fed comments, markets are pricing in an extra rate hike. Looking out to September 2027, the market is pricing in a 31.1% chance of two rate hikes to 4.25%. There is a 28.2% chance of three rate hikes to 4.50%, and a 17.4% chance of just one rate hike to 4.00%.

  • Currently, the TSX is flat. The DJIA, S&P500, and the NASDAQ are down 0.65%, 0.43%, and 0.38% respectively. All indices have rebounded sharply over the past month and are near all-time highs.
  • EURCAD is up 0.36% trading between 1.5999 and 1.6097 – near 3 month lows.
  • GBPCAD is up 0.36% trading between 1.8609 and 1.8729 – near 3 month lows.
  • JPYCAD is up 0.36% trading between 0.00881 and 0.00890 – near 9 month highs.
  • Gold is down 1% trading between $4,366 - $4,488USD/oz – near 4 month highs.
  • Silver is down 1.65% trading between $64.78 - $67.17USD/oz.
  • Oil (WTI crude) is down 1.2% trading between $88.80 and $92.10 – near 3 month highs.